据油价网2023年6月21日报道，加拿大能源监管机构日前发布了一份展望报告，称由于全球向清洁能源转型，到2050年前，加拿大的原油产量将下降76%，这是该监管机构首次对加拿大原油产量进行长期预测。加拿大能源监管机构还预测，从现在到2050年，全球化石燃料的使用量将下降65%。
加拿大石油行业的短期投资前景同样悲观，分析师预测该行业今年的收益将下降19%，这在很大程度上是由于天然气价格下跌。
一周前，总部位于巴黎的国际能源署(IEA)预测，由于向可再生能源的转型势头增强，全球原油需求将在本十年结束之前达到峰值。
根据IEA公布的数据，全球原油日需求量将从2022—2028年再增加6%，达到1.057亿桶。IEA预计，2028年全球原油日需求增加量将降至40万桶，远低于2023年预测的日增240万桶。
IEA还预测，全球交通运输用油需求将在2026年开始下降，这在很大程度上要归功于电动汽车革命以及提高能效的政策措施。汽油需求的增长预计将在今年年底出现逆转，但对“可燃化石燃料”的需求预计将继续增长，直到2028年达到峰值。IEA认为，长期原油需求将严重下降，并预测到2050年前，全球日需求量将降至2400万桶。
其他机构对全球长期原油需求的预测各有不同。
今年早些时候，能源专家能源情报集团预测，全球原油需求不仅将在2023年增加，而且将持续到本十年末。据分析师称，今年全球原油日需求量将增加到1.012亿桶，到2030年前将继续增加到1.06亿桶。今年全球原油日需求量将增加150万桶，其中亚洲大国原油需求量将日增65万桶。事实上，今年全球的平均日需求量将超过2019年1.006亿桶的历史新高。
包括欧佩克、埃克森美孚公司和EIA在内的至少10个机构预测，到2050年，全球原油需求将继续增加，而不是像大多数分析师预测的那样将萎缩。其中最乐观的是EIA，预计全球原油日需求量将增加34%，到2050年达到1.26亿桶。
李峻 译自 油价网
原文如下：
Energy Regulator Claims Canadian Oil Production Will Plunge 76% By 2050
The Canada Energy Regulator has issued a grim outlook that the country’s oil production will plunge 76% by 2050 thanks to the world moving to the clean energy transition, marking the first time the regulator has provided a long-term forecast for Canada’s crude output. The energy regulator has also predicted that global fossil fuel usage will decline by 65% between now and 2050.
The short-term investment outlook for Canada’s Oil Patch is just as bearish, with analysts predicting that earnings for the industry will decline 19% in 2023, in large part due to falling gas prices.
A week ago, the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted that global oil demand will peak before the end of the current decade as the transition to renewable energy gathers momentum.
According to the IEA, global oil demand will rise by another 6% from 2022-28 to hit 105.7 million barrels per day. The agency expects demand growth for oil to slump to just 400,000 barrels per day in 2028, way below growth of 2.4 million barrels per day forecast for 2023.
The energy agency has also predicted that global demand for oil used in transportation will start declining in 2026, thanks in large part to the EV revolution as well as policy measures that push for more efficiency. Growth in gasoline demand is expected to reverse at the end of the current year, but the demand for “combustible fossil fuels” is expected to continue growing before peaking in 2028. IEA sees long-term oil demand degrading really badly and has predicted demand will fall to just 24 million barrels per day by 2050.
Other agencies have different outlooks for long-term oil demand.
Earlier in the year, energy expert Energy Intelligence Group predicted that not only will oil demand grow in 2023 but it will continue doing so till the end of the decade. According to the analyst, global oil demand will grow to 101.2 million barrels per day in the current year and will continue growing to hit 106 mb/d by 2030. Global oil demand will grow by 1.5 mb/d in 2023, with the biggest country in Asia accounting for 650,000 b/d. Indeed, this year’s average will top the previous high of 100.6 mb/d set in 2019.
No less than 10 organizations, including OPEC, Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM), and the Energy Information Administration (EIA), have predicted that global oil demand will continue growing through 2050 and not shrink as most analysts have forecast. The most bullish among these is the U.S.-based EIA which has projected global oil demand to increase by 34% to hit 126 million barrels per day in 2050.
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