石油巨头在低成本原油生产和低碳排放之间举棋不定

具有ESG意识的投资者正在要求大型石油公司在投资低成本的新石油项目的同时降低碳足迹

埃克森美孚公司首席执行官伍兹：能源政策和公司战略需要在能源安全和减少石油和天然气排放之间取得正确的平衡

雪佛龙公司计划今年推进100多个项目，以降低其运营的碳强度

据油价网报道，世界上最大的国际石油和天然气公司继续承诺降低排放，以供应世界需要的碳氢化合物和未来将需要的碳氢化合物。不幸的是，对于石油巨头来说，并不是所有的盆地和生产区域都是一样的，所以近几年来，石油巨头把重点放在了投资最多产的油气项目，后者生产的石油利润最高，而且排放量相对低于其他地区。

为了留住投资者，最大的石油公司继续宣传他们在减排方面取得的进展。但为了通过更高的回报为股东创造额外的价值，石油公司正在优先考虑特定的盆地和资源，他们认为这些盆地和资源可以在他们的投资组合中产生最便宜的石油和天然气。

在ESG投资的时代，以及爆发地缘政治冲突以后的能源危机中，如果石油巨头想继续获得运营许可证的话，他们现在要在继续生产石油和天然气的需求与减少排放之间进行平衡。

尽管近几年来可再生能源激增，但世界仍依赖化石燃料满足80%以上的能源需求。

“找到正确的平衡”

埃克森美孚公司首席执行官达伦·伍兹日前在标普全球举行的剑桥能源周(CERAWeek)会议上表示，政策和企业需要在能源安全和减少石油和天然气排放之间取得正确的平衡。

伍兹说：“放弃其中任何一个目标都是错误的。”

埃克森美孚公司的目标是将其二叠纪盆地的原油日产量提高到100万桶，同时到2030年前，其在二叠纪盆地运营的非常规资产实现净零排放。

伍兹在CERAWeek会议上说：“这样做的意义之一是向世界证明我们可以做到这两点。”

这位埃克森美孚公司高管还表示，埃克森美孚公司还是全球排放密集度最低的炼油商之一。

伍兹指出，如果埃克森美孚公司不生产世界需要的柴油和汽油，其他排放强度更高的公司就会生产，那么在减排方面，世界就不会获得净收益。

他说，大家都认识到这个问题有多么紧迫，“效果有多么巨大”。伍兹说，解决办法将根据世界各地的情况而有所不同。

另一家美国石油巨头雪佛龙公司在2月份举行的2023年投资者日活动上表示：“我们正在朝着上游二氧化碳强度降低目标取得进展。我们将继续优先考虑那些有望以成本效益最大的方式减少碳排放的项目。”

雪佛龙公司预计今年将推进100多个项目，以降低其业务的碳强度，重点是能源管理、减少伴生气放空燃烧和甲烷管理等。

“我们对甲烷的目标很简单——把甲烷留在管道里。”

新优势资源  

分析师对《华尔街日报》表示，高产油田和新投产油田的每桶原油的排放强度往往较低，原因是这些油田产量巨大，而且新油田的开采采用了电气化等新设计，降低了碳排放强度。

伍德麦肯兹全球勘探研究主管朱莉·威尔逊告诉《华尔街日报》，在美国墨西哥湾深水区和沙特阿拉伯陆上，每桶原油的排放强度是最低的，同时也是最清洁的，因为那里的油井产量很高。

挪威也是全球原油排放量最低的国家之一。挪威海上运营商已经开始用陆上电力取代燃气轮机(挪威的电力主要来自水力发电)，从而减少了新油田的排放。

例如，挪威能源巨头Equinor表示，得益于来自陆上的电力，约翰斯维尔德鲁普大油田的二期工程每生产一桶原油将排放0.67公斤二氧化碳。根据挪威石油巨头的数据，全球平均水平为每桶原油排放15公斤二氧化碳。

然而，伍德麦肯兹能源研究副总裁安德鲁·莱瑟姆在最近的一份报告中说：“真正有利的资源，低盈亏平衡(对低价格的适应能力)和排放(范围1和范围2的可持续性)并不充足。”

莱瑟姆说：“碳氢化合物时代还远未结束。”

根据伍德麦肯兹的能源转型展望(ETO)报告，全球石油需求将在2030年达到峰值，然后在2050年将缓慢下降至9400万桶。即使在能源加速转型展望(AET)报告中，到2050年全球净零排放，并实现《巴黎协定》中最雄心勃勃的目标，届时全球石油日需求仍将为3300万桶。

莱瑟姆表示：“从目前的情况来看，我们认为到2050年，我们只能满足全球一半左右的基本油气需求。”

“‘峰值优势’这个问题越来越突出，并提出了一个巨大而紧迫的行动呼吁。正如最近的供应中断提醒我们的那样，如果我们忽视了上游，后果将很严重。无论是石油，还是天然气，都将继续需要巨大而持续的投资。”莱瑟姆如是说。

李峻 编译自 油价网

原文如下：

Oil Majors Juggle Cheaper Crude With Lower Emissions

·     ESG conscious investors are demanding that big oil companies lower their carbon footprint while investing in low-cost greenfield oil projects.

·     ExxonMobil CEO Woods: Policies and companies need to strike the right balance between energy security and ways to cut emissions from oil and gas.

·     Chevron looks to advance more than 100 projects this year to lower the carbon intensity of its operations.

The world’s biggest international oil and gas firms continue to pledge lower-emission operations to supply the world with the hydrocarbons it needs and will need in the future.  Unfortunately for Big Oil, not all basins and areas of production are equal, so companies have focused in recent years on investing in the most prolific operations that yield the most profitable oil with relatively lower emissions than in other locations.   

To keep investors in the sector, the largest oil firms continue to tout their progress in reducing emissions. But to create additional value for shareholders via higher returns, companies are prioritizing specific basins and resources they believe will yield the cheapest-to-extract oil and natural gas in their portfolios.  

In the era of ESG investment and the energy crisis following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Big Oil is now juggling the need to keep producing oil and gas with the imperative to cut emissions if they want to continue to have a license to operate.

Despite the surge in renewable energy in recent years, the world still relies on fossil fuels for more than 80% of its energy needs. 

“Strike The Right Balance”

Policies and companies need to strike the right balance between energy security and ways to cut emissions from oil and gas, ExxonMobil’s chief executive Darren Woods said at the CERAWeek by S&P Global conference last week. 

“It would be a mistake to abandon any one of those objectives,” Woods added. 

ExxonMobil targets to grow its Permian production to 1 million barrels per day (bpd) and, at the same time, reach net-zero emissions at its operated unconventional assets in the Permian by 2030. 

“One of the points in doing that is to demonstrate to the world that we can do both,” Woods at CERAWeek. 

Exxon is also one the least emission-intensive refiners in the world, the executive added. 

If Exxon doesn’t make the diesel and gasoline the world needs, someone else – with higher emission intensity operations – will, and there wouldn’t be a net benefit for the world in terms of emissions abatement, Woods noted. 

There is a recognition of how urgent the issue is and “how enormous the lift is,” he said. The solutions will vary according to the circumstances around the world, Woods said. 

The other U.S. supermajor, Chevron, said on its Investor Day 2023 last month, “We’re making progress toward our upstream CO2 intensity reduction targets. We continue to prioritize the projects expected to return the largest reduction in carbon emissions cost efficiently.” 

Chevron looks to advance more than 100 projects this year to lower the carbon intensity of its operations, focusing on energy management, flaring reduction, and methane management, among others. 

“Our goal on methane is simple – keep it in the pipe.” 

The New Advantaged Resources

Very productive fields and newer basins tend to be less emission-intensive per barrel due to the sheer volumes of production and new designs to make extraction in newer fields less carbon-intensive, by electrifying operations, for example, analysts tell The Wall Street Journal.

In the deepwater U.S. Gulf of Mexico and onshore Saudi Arabia, per-barrel production is among the cheapest and cleanest at the same time because the wells there are very productive, Julie Wilson, research director of global exploration at Wood Mackenzie, told the Journal. 

Norway also boasts some of the lowest-emission barrels globally. 

Operators offshore Norway have started to replace gas turbines with electricity from onshore – Norway’s electricity comes predominantly from hydropower – bringing down emissions from the newer oilfields. 

For example, Phase 2 of the giant Johan Sverdrup oilfield will emit 0.67 kilograms (kg) of CO2 per barrel of produced oil, thanks to power from shore, operator Equinor says. The global average is 15 kg/barrel, according to the Norwegian major.  

However, “truly advantaged resources, with low breakeven (resilience to low prices) and emissions (sustainability in scope 1 and 2 terms) are anything but plentiful,” Andrew Latham, Vice President, Energy Research at Wood Mackenzie, said in a recent report.  

“The world is far from the end of the hydrocarbon era,” Latham said. 

According to WoodMac’s base-case Energy Transition Outlook (ETO), oil demand peaks in 2030, before declining slowly to 94 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2050. Even in the Accelerated Energy Transition (AET) outlook of global net zero by 2050 and achieving the most ambitious targets in the Paris Agreement, oil demand will still be 33 million bpd by 2050.  

“As things stand, we see enough to satisfy only about half of our base-case oil and gas demand forecast to 2050,” WoodMac’s Latham says.     

“This problem of ‘peak advantage’ looms ever larger and presents a huge and urgent call to action. As recent supply interruptions serve to remind us, we neglect the upstream at our peril. Both oil and, in particular, gas will continue to need huge and sustained investment.”