据ICIS-MRC网站5月28日莫斯科报道，印度新冠疫情病例的快速增加导致各种旅行限制，减少了汽油和柴油等交通燃料的消耗。因此，根据烃加工网信息显示，EIA在5月份的短期能源展望(STEO)中下调了对印度石油消费的预测。
据EIA估计，3月至4月间，印度的石油日消耗量减少了40万桶，降幅8%，降至470万桶。
在5月份STEO发布之后，印度的石油消费数据显示，与同期相比下降了30万桶/天(降幅6%)。印度的旅游人数可能会继续减少，因此其将5月和6月的石油消费量也从4月的STEO数据下调。EIA预计，到7月份，印度的石油和其他液体消费量将恢复到此前预测的水平。
印度石油和天然气部石油规划和分析小组(PPAC)的数据表明，去年9月汽油和柴油消费量恢复到疫情前的水平，并持续到2021年3月。然而，汽油和柴油消费量在2021年4月有所下降，这反映了新冠病例的增加以及该国为限制其传播而采取的应对措施。
根据实时流动性指标显示，到5月中旬，印度的旅游人数下降幅度更大。谷歌新冠疫情社区流动报告提供了与2020年1月3日至2020年2月6日的基线相比，各地访问次数变化的数据。截至2021年5月21日，根据数据显示，过去几周，印度前往各类目的地的旅游人数大幅下降，这可能反映了该国对疫情的应对。
同样，根据谷歌的数据显示，2021年5月中旬，居家时间的百分比较基准期增加了25%。2021年5月中旬在家的时间与2020年4月人们在家的时间相似，当时印度的旅行也显著减少。2021年5月的流动性下降与汽油和柴油需求的大幅下降是一致的，但下降的程度将取决于这些情况持续多久，以及该国对疫情的应对最终会变得有多严格。
郝芬 译自 ICIS-MRC
原文如下：
EIA revises down its forecast of India oil demand due to rising COVID-19 cases
The rapid increase in COVID-19 cases in India has led to various travel restrictions, which reduced the consumption of transportation fuels such as gasoline and diesel. As a result, EIA revised down its forecast for petroleum consumption in India in the May Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), according to Hydrocarbonprocessing.
EIA estimates that petroleum consumption in India declined by 0.4 million barrels per day (b/d) (8%) to 4.7 million b/d between March and April.
India’s petroleum consumption data, released after the May STEO’s publication, revealed a similar decline of 0.3 million b/d (6%) over the same period. Reduced travel in India will likely continue, so it also revised down petroleum consumption in May and June from the April STEO. EIA expects India’s consumption of petroleum and other liquids will return to previously forecast levels by July.
Data from India’s Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell (PPAC) of its Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas indicate that consumption of gasoline and diesel returned to pre-pandemic levels by September 2020 and continued through March 2021. Gasoline and diesel consumption, however, declined in April 2021, reflecting the increases in COVID-19 cases and the country’s responses to limit its spread.
Real-time mobility indicators suggest even larger declines in travel in India through mid-May. The Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports provide data on the change in the number of visits to various places compared with a baseline from January 3, 2020, to February 6, 2020. As of May 21, 2021, the data indicate that travel in India to every category of destination has declined significantly over the past several weeks, likely reflecting the country’s response to the outbreak.
Similarly, Google data indicate that the percentage of time spent at home increased 25% in mid-May 2021 from the baseline period. Time spent at home in mid-May 2021 was similar to the amount of time people spent at home in April 2020, when travel in India was also significantly low. The May 2021 drop in mobility is consistent with large declines in gasoline and diesel demand, but the extent of the decline will depend on how long these conditions last and how severe the country’s responses to the outbreak ultimately become.
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