据5月12日Investing.com报道，由于美元疲软和欧佩克上调需求预期，油价上涨。WTI原油目前交易价格接近每桶65.41美元，大大高于前一日每桶63.68美元的低点。
不过，周一晚些时候，Colonial Pipeline表示，计划在本周末前重新开放关闭的输油管道。由于上周五晚些时候Colonial Pipeline关闭后引发供应担忧，周一早些时候汽油价格飙升至3年高点。从德克萨斯州到东北部的输油管道每天输送250万桶的燃油，占东海岸汽油、柴油和喷气式飞机燃油消耗量的45%。
与此同时，欧佩克提高了2021年对其原油的需求预期。在一份月度报告中，欧佩克表示，今年石油需求将增加595万桶/天，增幅为6.6%。该预测与上月持平。假设疫情的影响将在下半年初“基本得到控制”，欧佩克目前预计2021年世界经济增长率为5.5%，高于上月的5.4%。
积极的经济数据支持原油价格。美国3月份JOLTS职位空缺数据显示出劳动力市场走强，同样，德国和日本的积极数据也表明经济增长出现强劲复苏。由于最近新冠肺炎疫情激增，印度的燃料需求大幅下降，印度4月份汽油销量降至214万吨，为8个月来的最低水平。
API周二下报告称，上周美国原油供应下降了253万桶，汽油库存增加了564万桶。美国能源信息署(EIA)上周三发布的每周数据显示，截至4月30日，美国原油库存比5年季节性平均水平低1.7%，汽油库存比5年平均水平低1.9%，馏分油库存比5年平均水平低2.5%。
贝克休斯上周五报告称，截至5月7日，美国活跃钻井平台数量增加了2台，这也反映了美国原油供应的走势。
值得一提的是，原油价格很可能在20日均线63.78美元/桶和50日均线61.94美元/桶的关键支撑位之上保持坚挺。与此同时，油价可能在每桶67.78美元左右面临强劲阻力。
王佳晶 摘译自 Investing.com
原文如下：
OPEC Raised Oil Demand Forecast
WTI Crude oil is currently trading near $65.41 per barrel which is sharply higher from yesterday low of $63.68; prices are trading higher on dollar weakness and revised OPEC demand forecast.
However crude oil prices were under pressure on an easing of supply concerns after Colonial Pipeline said late Monday that it plans to reopen its shuttered pipeline by the end of this week gasoline prices soared to a 3-year high early Monday due to supply concerns after the Colonial Pipeline was shut down late last Friday. The pipeline from Texas to the Northeast carries 2.5 million BPD of fuel or 45% of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel consumed by the East Coast.
Meanwhile, OPEC raised the 2021 demand estimate for its crude oil. In a monthly report, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said demand will rise by 5.95 million barrels per day (BPD) this year, or 6.6%. The forecast was unchanged from last month. OPEC now sees 2021 world economic growth at 5.5%, up from 5.4% last month, assuming the impact of the pandemic will have been "largely contained" by the beginning of the second half.
Positive economic data is supportive for crude oil prices. US March JOLTS job openings data is showing a stronger labour market, similarly, positive data from Germany and Japan have indicted a strong recovery in growth.
However crude oil is negatively affected as China's Customs General Administration reported last Friday that the fuel demand in India has plunged as the recent surge in new Covid infections, India gasoline sales in April fell to 2.14 MMT, the lowest in 8 months.
API reported late Tuesday afternoon that US crude supplies fell -2.53 million bbl and gasoline stockpiles rose +5.64 million bbl last week. However official US inventory data will be released later today to provide fresh direction to the oil market. It is expected that EIA crude inventories may fall by -2.0 million bbl.
Last Wednesday's weekly EIA data showed that US crude oil inventories as of Apr. 30 were -1.7% below the seasonal 5-year average, gasoline inventories were -1.9% below the 5-year average, and distillate inventories were -2.5% below the 5-year average.
Baker Hughes reported last Friday that active U.S. oil rigs rose by +2 rigs in the week ended May 7, rigmcount number is indicative of oil production in the US.
Crude oil prices are likely to trade firm while above the key support level of 20 days EMA of $63.78 per barrel and 50 days EMA of $61.94 per barrel. Meanwhile, it may face stiff resistance around $67.78 per barrel.
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