交易商正在押注一个不断紧缩的全球柴油市场

中间馏分油和柴油期货的价格在最近几周大幅上涨，超过了布伦特油价的涨幅

在美国，包括柴油在内的馏分油库存已低于正常水平

由于原油和燃料油供应趋紧，炼油利润率在最近几周也有所提高

据油价网2023年8月22日报道，尽管美国和欧洲经济放缓，强劲反弹也不尽如人意，但全球柴油市场供应依然紧张，并将以低于平均水平的库存进入收割和采暖季节。

最近几周，中间馏分油和柴油期货价格大幅上涨，超过了布伦特原油价格的涨幅。布伦特原油价格已从此前的每桶75美元—80美元区间升至80美元—85美元区间。

在美国和欧洲中间馏分油库存处于季节性低位之际，投资组合经理和投机者越来越多地押注柴油价格上涨，而这通常是发生在供暖季之前库存增加的时候。

柴油库存虽然没有去年同期那么低，但仍远低于历史平均水平，这表明炼油厂停产、需求强于预期或冬季变冷导致的供应减少，可能会使馏分油市场进一步陷入短缺，推高价格，并再次对商品走势和通胀构成压力。

柴油库存低于正常水平

在美国，包括柴油在内的馏分油库存已低于正常水平。

美国能源信息署(EIA)上周在其备受关注的最新每周石油库存报告表示，在8月11日当周，美国馏分油库存增加30万桶。目前美国馏分油库存比5年同期平均水平低16%左右。EIA数据显示，馏分油需求低于去年同期，但近几周美国馏分油总产量也呈下降趋势。

分析师表示，在欧洲，阿姆斯特丹-鹿特丹-安特卫普(ARA)石油交易中心独立持有的柴油类库存看起来也相当紧张。

咨询公司FGE周五在一份报告中称，全球范围内，除亚洲以外的所有地区上周都增加了中间馏分油库存，尽管现货溢价过高阻碍了库存的增加。

FGE表示：“尽管近几周库存基本呈横盘走势，但每周的跌幅越来越低于一年中同期的历史区间，这给已经很高的中间馏分油价格带来了上行压力。”

荷兰国际集团(ING)策略师帕特森和曼塞特周一在一份报告中写道：“市场似乎担心的是，中东地区的轻油库存看起来仍然相当紧张，而随着冬季的临近，我们还没有开始看到库存增加。”

看涨资金押注柴油价格上升

由于库存下降，对冲基金今年夏天越来越看好馏分油。荷兰国际集团援引的交易所数据显示，上周欧洲洲际交易所(ICE)汽油净多头头寸(看涨与看跌头寸之差)增加5703手，至93941手。这是自去年3月以来欧洲最大的轻油期货净多头头寸。

在大西洋彼岸，纽约港交割的超低硫柴油净多头头寸在8月初也触及18个月高点。

分析人士预计，美国和欧洲的柴油市场将供不应求。

咨询公司伍德麦肯兹的炼油和成品油市场研究分析师豪舍姆告诉彭博社记者：“在我们目前的预测中，欧洲柴油/轻油供应的前景是紧张的，原因是轻质原油的柴油/轻油产量预期较低且转向航空燃料产量，以及计划外的炼油厂停产。”

豪舍姆补充说：“预计到11月份，柴油需求将逐月增长。”

炼油利润猛增

由于原油和燃料油供应趋紧，近几周炼油利润率也有所上升，原因是欧佩克+联盟和沙特阿拉伯将大部分中等含硫原油从市场上扣留，导致馏分油产量下降，中等含硫原油是加工成柴油的理想选择。

国际能源署(IEA)在其8月份月度报告中称，预计8月份全球炼油日产能将达到8390万桶的夏季峰值，比5月份日增240万桶，比去年同期日增260万桶。

“成品油产量的增加未能缓解成品油市场的紧张，将汽油和中间馏分油的裂解利润推至接近历史高位。”IEA表示。

IEA指出，汽油和柴油市场的吃紧已将炼油利润率推到6个月高位。

“额外的重质含硫原油供应将使炼油商能够提振炼油活动，并有助于缓解成品油市场的紧张局势。但如果该集团维持目前的目标，石油库存可能会在今年第三季度日减220万桶，在第四季度日减120万桶，这可能会推高油价。”

由于经合组织经济体的柴油库存低于5年平均水平，美国经济软着陆，欧洲没有出现重大经济衰退，而经济表现不佳区域的复苏，可能为今年晚些时候的另一轮柴油牛市奠定基础。 

李峻 译自 油价网

原文如下：

Traders Are Betting On A Tightening Global Diesel Market

·     The prices of middle distillates and diesel futures have jumped in recent weeks, outpacing the increase in Brent crude oil prices.

·     Distillate stocks, which include diesel, are lower than normal in the United States.

·     Reflecting tighter supply of crude and fuels, refining margins have also strengthened in recent weeks.

Despite the economic slowdown in the U.S. and Europe and a failed strong rebound in China, the diesel market globally is tight and set to enter the crop and heating seasons with lower-than-average inventories.  

The prices of middle distillates and diesel futures have jumped in recent weeks, outpacing the increase in Brent crude oil prices, which have moved into the $80-85 a barrel bandwidth from the previous range of $75-80. 

Portfolio managers and speculators are increasingly betting on higher diesel prices amid seasonally low inventories of middle distillates in the United States and Europe, at a time when stocks typically build ahead of the heating season. 

Diesel inventories are not as low as they were at this time last year, but they are still well below historical averages, suggesting that reduced supply due to refinery outages, stronger-than-expected demand, or a colder winter could tip the distillate market further into deficit, stoking up prices and weighing – again – on the movement of goods and inflation. 

Lower-Than-Usual Diesel Stocks

Distillate stocks, which include diesel, are lower than normal in the United States. 

In the week ending August 11, distillate fuel inventories in the U.S. increased by 300,000 barrels, the Energy Information Administration said in its latest closely-watched weekly petroleum inventory report last week. Distillate fuel stocks are currently around 16% below the five-year average for this time of the year. Distillate demand has been lower than at this time last year, but total U.S. distillate production has also trended lower in recent weeks, EIA data show. 

In Europe, diesel-type inventories independently-held at the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) oil trading hub are also looking quite tight, analysts say. 

Globally, middle distillate stocks built last week in all regions apart from ARA, despite steep backwardation discouraging stockbuilding, consultancy FGE said in a note on Friday.  

“Although stocks have been moving largely sideways in recent weeks, they are falling increasingly below the historical range for the time of year each week, putting upwards pressure on already high middle distillate cracks,” FGE said. 

ING strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey wrote in a note on Monday, 

“The market appears to be concerned about the fact that ARA gasoil inventories are still looking quite tight and we are yet to start seeing a build in inventories as we edge closer towards the start of winter.”  

Bullish Bets On Diesel Rise 

As a result of lower inventories, hedge funds have been increasingly bullish on distillates this summer. The net long position – the difference between bullish and bearish bets – on ICE gasoil in Europe rose by 5,703 lots to 93,941 lots last week, per exchange data cited by ING. This was the biggest net long position on gasoil futures in Europe since March 2022.

Across the Atlantic, the net long position on ultra-low sulfur diesel delivered in New York Harbor, ULSD NY NYMEX, also hit the highest in 18 months earlier in August. 

Analysts expect a tight diesel market ahead in the U.S. and Europe. 

“The outlook for Europe diesel/gasoil supply is tight in our current forecast, driven by the lower diesel/gasoil yields expected from lighter crude slates, the shift to jet yields, and unplanned refinery outages,” Emma Howsham, a research analyst for refining and oil product markets at consultancy Wood Mackenzie, told Bloomberg.

“Demand is expected to increase month-on-month to November,” Howsham added. 

Refining Margins Jump 

Reflecting tighter supply of crude and fuels, refining margins have also strengthened in recent weeks, due to lower distillate yields as OPEC+ and Saudi Arabia are withholding mostly medium sour crude grades from the market, which are ideal for processing into diesel.  

Global refinery throughputs are expected to reach a summer peak of 83.9 million barrels per day (bpd) this month, up by 2.4 million bpd since May and 2.6 million bpd higher than a year ago, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its monthly report for August. 

“The increase in refined product output has failed to ease product market tightness, pushing gasoline and middle distillate cracks to near record-highs,” IEA said. 

Tight gasoline and diesel markets have pushed margins to six-month highs, the agency noted. 

“Additional supplies of heavy sour crude would allow refiners to boost activity and help ease product market tensions. But if the bloc’s current targets are maintained, oil inventories could draw by 2.2 mb/d in 3Q23 and 1.2 mb/d in the fourth quarter, with a risk of driving prices still higher.” 

With diesel inventories in OECD economies below five-year averages, a soft landing of the U.S. economy, no major recessions in Europe, and a recovery in the underwhelming area's economic performance could set the stage for another diesel bull run later this year.