bp报告显示：尽管绿色能源转型持续推动 全球碳排放量仍创历史新高

《2023年世界能源统计评论》报告显示，去年化石燃料占全球一次能源消费量的82%，全球能源二氧化碳排放量增加0.9%

虽然经合组织国家的碳排放量一直在下降，由于经济增长和能源消耗增加，非经合组织国家特别是亚太地区的国家，碳排放量却正在急剧上升

解决全球碳排放问题需要与亚洲经济快速增长的国家合作，需要创新技术来摆脱对传统化石燃料的依赖，以及平衡经济增长与环境责任战略

据油价网2023年8月7日报道，在过去的70年里，英国石油公司（bp）每年都会出版《世界能源统计评论》报告。自1952年4月首次发布以来，《世界能源统计评论》报告一直是能源行业值得信赖的信息来源，在提供全球石油、天然气和煤炭生产和消费的综合数据方面发挥了重要作用。

bp发言人表示，bp决定将《世界能源统计评论》报告的发布转交给英国能源研究所(EI)，以便首席经济学家Spencer Dale的团队优先考虑bp首席执行官伯纳德·鲁尼的倡议，将bp转型为可再生能源和低碳能源公司，从而节省时间和资源。

6月下旬，EI发布了《世界能源统计评论》报告的首份版本，即第72版《世界能源统计评论》。本文作者将介绍报告中关于碳排放的调查结果。

创历史新高的碳排放

《2023年世界能源统计评论》报告显示，尽管太阳能和风能等可再生能源继续快速增长，但世界仍然严重依赖化石燃料来满足能源需求。

虽然可再生能源以创历史新高的速度增长，但化石燃料在一次能源消费总量中仍占82%的份额。天然气和煤炭需求几乎持平，油价反弹至接近疫情前的水平。

一年前，二氧化碳排放量经历了“近50年来最快的增长速度”。 同时，“一年前二氧化碳排放量仅比2018年的历史最高水平低0.8%。除非经济衰退在今年下半年抑制全球能源需求，否则二氧化碳排放量将在2022年达到历史新高”。

这种情况确实发生了，因为去年能源二氧化碳排放量增加了0.9%，达到344亿吨的新高，表明在遏制全球碳排放方面缺乏进展。二氧化碳排放量已经远离了《巴黎协定》所要求的减排目标。

EI总裁Juliet Davenport表示：“尽管风能和太阳能在电力领域进一步强劲增长，但全球与能源相关的温室气体排放总量再次增加。我们仍在朝着与《巴黎协定》要求相反的方向前进。”

亚洲驱动碳减排进程

世界上大多数国家似乎都在致力于减少碳排放，那么为什么全球碳排放量还在不断增加?  

问题在于发达国家和发展中国家之间存在着巨大的二氧化碳排放差距。15年来，以高收入为主的38个经合组织成员国的二氧化碳排放量一直在下降。它们现在的二氧化碳排放量与35年前的水平相当。

与此同时，随着经济扩张，发展中国家继续迅速增加化石燃料的使用和碳污染。特别是亚太地区，在过去的50多年里，碳排放量呈爆炸式增长。

发展中非经合组织国家的碳排放量出现爆炸式增长有两个关键原因。首先，发展中非经合组织国家正在经历一个依赖煤炭的发展阶段，类似于经合组织国家的历史，那时后者还没有更多地意识到气候影响。其次，人口众多的发展中国家的数十亿人正在提高他们的生活水平和能源消耗。

因此，尽管人均化石燃料使用量落后于发达国家，但数十亿人缓慢增加的消费所产生的总排放影响，推动了全球二氧化碳排放量的大部分上升。

鉴于全球60%的人口居住在快速增长的亚太国家，这对控制二氧化碳排放构成了巨大挑战。遏制全球碳污染需要发展中国家摆脱对化石燃料的依赖，这种依赖一直困扰着经合组织的发展。

巨大的挑战  

当人们质疑为什么全球碳排放量不顾气候警告而下降时，数据揭示了一个发人深省的现实。亚洲发展中国家的碳排放激增使其他地方的努力黯然失色。

不仅仅是像印度这样的碳排放大国。亚太地区多个国家在追求经济快速增长的同时，碳排放量也在不断增加。

半个世纪以来，尽管发展中国家的二氧化碳排放量有所下降，但这些人口大国的碳排放量不断增加，推动全球二氧化碳排放量创下新高。在不扭转亚洲急剧增长曲线的情况下，世界控制碳排放的希望渺茫。

这是一项巨大的技术和外交挑战。美国必须在开拓和分享可负担得起的低碳技术方面发挥带头作用，使发展中国家能够超越对传统化石燃料的依赖。迫切需要多边合作，在不破坏气候的前提下，开辟一条公平、繁荣的道路。要驯服这头碳排放巨兽，迫切需要亚洲的合作。

李峻 译自 油价网

原文如下：

Global Carbon Emissions Hit New Record Despite Green Energy Push

·     The 2023 Statistical Review of World Energy revealed that fossil fuels account for 82% of the world's primary energy consumption, and CO2 emissions from energy rose by 0.9% in 2022.

·     Although emissions from OECD countries have been declining, non-OECD nations, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, are seeing a sharp rise due to economic growth and increased energy consumption.

·     Addressing global emissions requires collaboration with Asia's fast-growing nations, innovative technologies to bypass traditional fossil fuel dependence, and strategies to balance economic growth with environmental responsibility.

For the past 70 years, BP has annually published the Statistical Review of World Energy. Having been a trusted resource for the wider energy sector since its inaugural release in April 1952, the Statistical Review has been instrumental in providing comprehensive data on global oil, gas, and coal production and consumption.

According to a company spokesperson, BP decided to transfer the publication of the report to the Energy Institute (EI) to allow Chief Economist Spencer Dale’s team to prioritize Chief Executive Bernard Looney’s initiatives in transitioning the oil and gas company towards renewables and low-carbon energy, thereby freeing up time and resources.

In late June, the EI published its inaugural version of the report, which is the 72nd Edition of the Statistical Review of World Energy. Today, I will cover the report’s findings on carbon emissions.

Record High Carbon Emissions

The 2023 Review shows the world remains heavily reliant on fossil fuels for energy needs, even as renewables like solar and wind continue rapid growth.

While renewable power expanded at record rates, fossil fuels maintained an 82% share of total primary energy consumption. Natural gas and coal demand stayed nearly flat with oil rebounding close to pre-pandemic levels.

A year ago, I reported that carbon dioxide emissions had experienced “the fastest growth rate in nearly 50 years.” I further noted “Emissions were only 0.8% short of the all-time high set in 2018. They are on a trajectory to reach a new all-time high in 2022 unless a recession curbs global energy demand in the second half of the year.”

That happened, as carbon dioxide emissions from energy rose 0.9% in 2022 to a new high of 34.4 billion metric tons, indicating lack of progress in curbing worldwide carbon output. Emissions have moved further away from the reductions called for in the Paris Agreement.

“Despite further strong growth in wind and solar in the power sector, overall global energy-related greenhouse gas emissions increased again,” said EI President Juliet Davenport. “We are still heading in the opposite direction to that required by the Paris Agreement.”

Asia Driving Emissions

With most of the world seemingly committed to reducing carbon emissions, why do they keep increasing?

The problem is that a massive emissions gap exists between developed and developing nations. The 38 mainly high-income OECD member countries have seen declining carbon dioxide outputs for 15 years. Their emissions now match levels from 35 years ago.

Meanwhile, developing countries continue rapidly increasing fossil fuel use and carbon pollution as economies expand. The Asia Pacific region, in particular, has seen explosive growth in carbon emissions over the past 50+ years.

Developing non-OECD nations have seen explosive growth in carbon emissions for two key reasons.

First, they are going through a coal-dependent development phase similar to OECD countries’ histories, before more awareness of climate impacts. Second, billions of people in populous developing countries are raising their living standards and energy consumption.

Thus, while per capita fossil fuel use lags developed nations, the aggregate emissions impact of billions of people slowly increasing consumption drives the bulk of rising global carbon dioxide output.

This poses a monumental challenge for emissions control when 60% of the world’s population resides in fast-growing Asia-Pacific countries. Curbing worldwide carbon pollution will require developing nations to leapfrog the fossil fuel dependence that plagued OECD development.

A Monumental Challenge

When people question why global carbon emissions won’t fall despite climate warnings, the data reveals a sobering reality. The emissions explosion in Asia’s developing nations eclipses efforts elsewhere.

It’s not only mammoth emitters like India. Multiple countries across the Asia-Pacific region are increasing emissions while pursuing rapid economic growth. 

For half a century and counting, the emissions expansion in these populous nations has propelled global carbon dioxide to new records despite declines in developing countries. The world has little hope of reining in emissions without reversing Asia’s steep growth curve.

This presents an imposing technological and diplomatic challenge. The U.S. must take the lead in pioneering and sharing affordable low-carbon technologies enabling developing nations to leapfrog the traditional fossil fuel dependence. And urgent multilateral cooperation is needed to chart an equitable, prosperous path without dooming the climate. Taming the emissions beast requires Asia’s urgent partnership.