北美天然气价格上涨即将到来

据美国钻井地带网站2023年6月22日报道，在北美天然气市场经历了一个平静的淡季之后，今年夏季已经到来，天然气需求届时将激增。

这是挪威能源资讯机构雷斯塔能源公司（Rysted）能源分析师埃德·艾伦在6月20日发给美国钻井地带网站的北美天然气和液化天然气市场更新报告中所说的。

艾伦在最新报告中称：“过去几个月，强劲的供应和较冷的天气使天然气价格保持在低位，但随着整个地区气温上升，住宅和商业场所的制冷需求意味着天然气价格上涨即将到来。”

“降温天数(CDD)的频率对天然气需求有重大影响，由于美国大部分地区都在应对初夏的严重热浪，天然气需求将出现实质性上升。”艾伦补充认为。

艾伦在更新报告中指出，雷斯塔能源的模型预测，由于煤制气转换有限和国内天然气价格竞争力，今年夏天美国大陆天然气电力需求将达到每天500亿立方英尺。

“我们预计今年夏季(6月至8月)天然气电力需求平均为每天424亿立方英尺，7月份天然气需求峰值为每天450亿立方英尺。”艾伦在最新报告中称。

他补充说：“美国中南部和东部地区天然气将利用最多，平均每天分别为127亿立方英尺和185亿立方英尺。”

降温天数轨迹

艾伦在最新报告中表示，随着气候变暖，降温天数的发展轨迹发生了变化，国内平衡将受到天然气发电需求增加的重大影响。

“天气是不可预测的，因此我们的预测是保守的，所以如果气温高于3年平均水平，天然气电力需求的平均水平将高于预期。”艾伦继续表示。

在更新报告中，艾伦指出，本周可能成为区域天然气需求超过预期的前兆，“因为得克萨斯州的平均气温预计将超过100华氏度（37摄氏度），这可能会对电网造成考验”。

艾伦认为：“直至6月19日，根据得克萨斯州电力可靠性委员会(ERCOT)公布的数据，天然气需求占燃料组合的56%。”

“基于这些数据，天然气的利用率相对于夏季产能约为81%，因此如果气温继续升高，区域市场可以预期更高的天然气需求。”艾伦补充说。

亨利中心价格

艾伦在更新报告中强调，夏季天然气发电需求将对今年的市场平衡和短期亨利中心价格产生重大影响。

他说：“今年美国天然气国内市场一直很宽松，因为市场应对了由于2022/2023年冬季比正常温暖而导致的库存增加。”

他补充说：“这种情况，加上供应的增长，导致亨利中心价格下跌，并降低了今年的价格前景。”

艾伦继续说：“我们的估计表明，今年天然气价格将保持低迷，然而，夏季需求的上升将为国内平衡提供一些急需的紧缩措施，并为亨利中心的价格设定短期底线。” 

艾伦继续说道：“我们估计亨利中心夏季天然气的平均价格为每百万英热单位2.73美元(比当前的期货曲线溢价2.5%)，今年的剩余时间为每百万英热单位2.91美元。”

雷斯塔能源分析师指出，该公司的核心观点表明，期货曲线正在消化夏季天然气需求的影响，并表示，除非出现重大天气事件，“我们可能会看到比预期的每周注入量更少，这将改变美国大陆的存储轨迹，并提供短期看涨价格行动”。

在6月早些时候发布的最新短期能源展望报告中，EIA预计今年亨利中心天然气价格为每百万英热单位2.20美元，第三季度为每百万英热单位2.62美元。最新的能源展望报告强调，去年亨利中心的天然气现货价格平均为每百万英热单位6.42美元。

在5月份发布的上一份短期能源展望报告中，EIA预计到今年亨利中心天然气的平均成本为每百万英热单位2.91美元。 

亨利中心价格基本面

在6月21日发给美国钻井地带网站的另一份市场更新报告中，雷斯塔能源高级分析师Lu Ming Pang强调，亨利中心的天然气价格从6月15日的每百万英热单位2.41美元上涨至6月20日的2.54美元。

Pang在最新报告中表示：“基本面保持不变，高库存水平继续抑制价格，特别是在液化厂维修后天然气需求较低的时期。”

“到6月9日，亨利中心天然气库存量目前为26340亿立方英尺，比五年平均水平高出约15%，比去年同期高出27%。”Pang补充认为。

“到6月9日的注入储气量达到840亿立方英尺，比五年平均水平高出约7%，比去年同期的940亿立方英尺低11%”，Pang继续说道。

在更新报告中，该机构的分析师指出，美国中部地区和南大西洋地区的降温天数高于中大西洋地区和太平洋地区，他说这些地区的温度更接近基准温度。

“总的来说，美国仍然显示大约35个降温天数，这意味着温度并不比基线高多少，这意味着我们仍在等待天然气发电冷却需求的回升。”Pang表示。

他补充说：“这种情况将在7月份发生变化，届时气温预计将高于平均水平，这可能会导致天然气发电冷却需求增加。”

“然而，今年迄今为止强劲的天然气库存水平可能只会导致天然气价格出现温和变化”，艾伦如是说。

李峻 译自 油价网

原文如下：

Pricier Gas is on the Horizon

After a muted shoulder season for North American gas markets, summer has arrived with a bang and demand is set to surge.

That’s what Rystad Energy Analyst Ade Allen said in a North America gas and LNG market update, which was sent to Rigzone on Tuesday.

“Strong supply and cooler weather kept prices low in the last few months, but as temperatures rise across the region, the need for cooling in residential and commercial settings means pricier gas is on the horizon,” Allen said in the update.

“The frequency of Cooling Degree Days (CDDs) has a significant impact on gas demand, and as much of the U.S. deals with a crippling early-summer heat wave, there will be a material uptick in gas demand,” he added.

Allen noted in the update that Rystad modeling projects daily Lower 48 gas power demand will reach 50 billion cubic feet per day this summer due to limited coal-to-gas switching and domestic gas price competitiveness.

“We expect gas for power demand for the summer period (June to August) to average 42.4 billion cubic feet per day, with demand peaking in July at 45.0 billion cubic feet per day,” Allen said in the update.

“South-Central and East regions will utilize the most, averaging 12.7 billion cubic feet per day and 18.5 billion cubic feet per day, respectively,” he added.

CDDs Trajectory

As the trajectory of CDDs changes with warmer weather, domestic balances will see a significant impact via increases in gas-for-power demand, Allen stated in the update.

“Weather is unpredictable and our forecasts are conservative as a result, so if temperatures are warmer than the three-year average, gas for power demand averages will be higher than expected,” he continued.

In the update, Allen noted that this week could serve as a precursor for regional gas demand overshooting estimates “as temperatures in Texas are expected to average over 100 degrees Fahrenheit, potentially putting the grid to the test”.

“As of yesterday [Monday], per the Electricity Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), natural gas represents ~56 percent of the fuel mix,” Allen said.

“At those levels, natural gas is running at around 81 percent utilization relative to summer capacity, so if temperatures remain elevated, the regional market can expect higher gas demand,” he added.

Henry Hub Price

Summer gas-for-power demand will have material implications on 2023 balances and short-term Henry Hub prices, Allen highlighted in the statement.

“The domestic market has been loose in 2023, as the market dealt with elevated inventories due to a warmer than normal winter in 2022/23,” he said.

“This scenario, combined with the growth in supply, has precipitated the decline in Henry Hub prices and diminished the price outlook for 2023,” he added.

“Our estimates indicate prices will remain subdued in 2023, however, the uptick in summer demand will provide some much-needed tightening for domestic balances and set a short-term floor for Henry Hub prices,” he continued.

“We estimate summer Henry Hub prices will average $2.73 per MMBtu (+2.5 percent premium to the current futures curve) and $2.91 per MMBtu for the balance of 2023,” Allen went on to state.

The Rystad analyst noted that the company’s central view indicates the futures curve is discounting the implications of summer gas demand and said that, barring a material weather event, “we could see narrower than expected weekly injections, which will change the trajectory for Lower 48 storage and provide short-term bullish price action”.

In its latest short term energy outlook, which was released earlier this month, the U.S. Energy Information Administration projected that Henry Hub natural gas spot price would average $2.66 per MMBtu this year. The June EIA STEO sees the commodity coming in at $2.20 per MMBtu in the second quarter and $2.62 per MMBtu in the third quarter. Last year, the Henry Hub spot price averaged $6.42 per MMBtu, the latest STEO highlighted.

In its previous STEO, which was released in May, the EIA projected that Henry Hub would average $2.91 per MMBtu in 2023.

Henry Hub Fundamentals

In a separate market update sent to Rigzone on Wednesday, Rystad Senior Analyst Lu Ming Pang highlighted that Henry Hub prices increased to $2.54 per MMBtu on June 20 from $2.41 per MMBtu on June 15.

“The fundamentals remain the same, with high storage levels continuing to suppress prices, especially amidst a period of lower gas demand following maintenance at liquefaction plants,” Pang said in the update.

“Storage levels are now at 2,634 billion cubic feet as of June 9, some 15 percent higher than the five-year average and 27 percent higher than the same period last year,” Pang added.

“Injections into storage reached 84 billion cubic feet on June 9, some seven percent higher than the five-year average and 11 percent lower than the 94 Bcf seen this time last year,” Pang continued.

In the update, the Rystad analyst pointed out that the U.S. Central and South Atlantic regions are indicating higher CDDs than the Middle Atlantic and Pacific regions, which he said are tracking closer to baseline temperatures.

“As a whole, the U.S. is still indicating about 35 CDDs, implying that temperatures are not much above the baseline, meaning we are still awaiting a pick-up in gas power demand for cooling,” Pang said.

“This is set to change in July when temperatures are expected to be warmer than average, which may cause gas power demand for cooling to increase,” he added.

“However, strong storage levels so far this year could result on only modest changes to prices,” he continued.