2023年美国页岩油产量增长将令人失望

美国能源信息署（EIA）：9月份美国原油日产量接近1230万桶

尽管原油产量在增长，但增速只有2015-2016年油价暴跌后反弹时的一半

成本通胀和工人短缺继续拖累美国原油产量增长

据油价网12月5日报道，尽管最近美国原油日产量达到了自今年5月全球疫情大流行低点低于1000万桶以来的最高水平，但今年的原油产量增速已明显放缓，原因是页岩油产区陷入困境、劳动力短缺、供应链延误以及供应成本高企，而生产商则专注于回报股东而不是钻新井。美国9月原油日产量接近1230万桶，这是美国能源信息署（EIA）上周在石油供应月报中公布的最新综合数据。今年1月至9月，美国原油日产量平均为1173.3万桶，美国政府目前对今年美国原油日产量的平均预测为1170万桶。

尽管原油产量在增长，但增速只有2015-2016年油价暴跌后反弹时的一半，当时美国2018年和2019年每年的原油日产量飙升了100万桶，甚至更多。 

美国那些原油产量增长迅猛的日子可能一去不复返了，因为生产商仍然将支出优先于钻新井，而成本通胀和供应链问题甚至阻碍了那些愿意提高原油产量的企业。

9月份的原油日产量远高于2020年5月的970万桶，当时美国生产商在全球和美国原油需求在疫情大流行开始时大幅下降后削减了产量。

自那以后，原油产量有所增长，但与2014年或2018-2019年的增长速度不同。

根据路透社市场分析师约翰·肯普汇编的EIA数据，今年迄今，美国原油日产量以约60万～70万桶的年率增长。这还不到2015-2016年油价暴跌前后增长率的一半。  

根据《11月份短期能源展望》报告，美国能源信息署预计，今年美国原油日产量平均将为1170万桶，2023年为1240万桶，均将超过2019年创下的历史新高。

尽管预计明年的原油产量将创纪录，但到目前为止，美国能源情报署已多次下调了今年的原油产量。根据路透社的计算，最新的产量增长预期大幅下调了21%。  

在10月份的预测中，EIA已经将2023年的平均原油日产量估值从9月份的1260万桶下调至1240万桶。 

一些页岩高管表示，美国的页岩活动已经停滞。还有人指出，美国页岩领域已不再是摇摆产油者，欧佩克已重新成为石油供应基本面的最重要驱动因素。

“页岩被认为是一个摇摆不定的生产者，沙特和欧佩克一直在等待。现在，欧佩克真正回到了驾驶员的位置，他们是摇摆生产者。”美国赫斯公司首席执行官约翰·赫斯11月份在迈阿密的一次会议上如是表示。

在2020年被自然资源公司收购的Parsley能源公司的创始人布莱恩·谢菲尔德上周对路透社表示：“页岩不能再成为一个摇摆生产者了。”

北达科他州矿产资源部主任林恩·赫尔姆斯10月份表示，“该州有数万个工作岗位，但申请者并不多。进入2023年，我们将面临严重的劳动力短缺，而且这种情况将持续下去。”  

在达拉斯联邦储备银行第三季度能源调查中，石油和天然气高管指出，成本、服务和供应的可获得性是限制扩产的关键因素。

“供应成本大幅增加和交货等待时间大幅延长”，一家勘探和生产公司的高管表示。另一位高管指出，“石油和天然气行业活动已经停滞不前。我们应该鼓励设备和材料制造商和供应商增加供应。”

这位高管补充称：“持续两位数的通胀不是一个健康行业的解决方案，项目正变得日益不经济。”

李峻 编译自 油价网

原文如下：

U.S. Shale Growth To Disappoint In 2023

·     EIA: U.S. oil production hit nearly 12.3 million bpd in September.

·     Although output is growing, the pace is half the growth rate seen in the rebound after the 2015-2016 oil price slump.

·     Cost inflation and a worker shortage continue to weigh on growth.

Despite the fact that U.S. crude oil production has recently hit the highest level since the pandemic low of below 10 million barrels per day (bpd) in May 2022, the growth rate has markedly slowed this year as the shale patch struggles, labor shortages, supply chain delays, and the high cost of supplies while producers focus on returns instead of drilling. U.S. oil production hit nearly 12.3 million bpd in September, the latest month with comprehensive data published by the EIA in its Petroleum Supply Monthly report last week. Between January and September, daily U.S. crude oil production averaged 11.733 million bpd, and 11.7 million bpd is the administration’s current projection for average U.S. crude oil production for this year. 

Although output is growing, the pace is half the growth rate seen in the rebound after the 2015-2016 oil price slump when American oil production in 2018 and 2019 soared by 1 million bpd—and even more—per year.  

Those days of surging growth rates may be gone forever as producers continue to prioritize payouts over drilling, while cost inflation and supply chain issues hold back even those who are willing to boost output.  

The September production was much higher than the 9.7 million bpd seen in May 2020, when American producers curtailed output after global and U.S. oil demand plunged at the beginning of the pandemic. 

Since then, output has grown, but not at the same pace as in 2014 or 2018-2019. 

So far this year, U.S. oil production has risen at an annual rate of around 600,000 bpd-700,000 bpd, according to EIA data compiled by Reuters market analyst John Kemp. That’s less than half the growth rate just before and after the 2015-2016 oil price crash.  

The EIA expects U.S. crude oil production to average 11.7 million bpd in 2022 and 12.4 million bpd in 2023, which would surpass the record high set in 2019, per the November Short-Term Energy Outlook.  

Despite the expectation of a record output next year, the EIA has downgraded the numbers several times in 2022 so far. The latest cut is a massive 21% reduction in the growth estimate, according to calculations by Reuters.

In the October forecast, the EIA had already downgraded the average production estimate for 2023 to 12.4 million bpd from the September forecast of 12.6 million bpd.

Some shale executives say activity has flatlined. Others note that the U.S. shale patch is no longer the swing oil producer and OPEC has returned as the most important driver of oil supply fundamentals. 

“Shale was thought of as a swing producer, the Saudis and OPEC have waited this out. Now, really OPEC is back in the driver’s seat where they are the swing producer,” Hess Corp CEO John Hess said at a conference in Miami last month.

“Shale can’t come back to become a swing producer,” Bryan Sheffield, the founder of Parsley Energy which was bought by Pioneer Natural Resources in 2020, told Reuters last week. 

Lynn Helms, Director of North Dakota’s Department of Mineral Resources, said in October, “There are tens of thousands of jobs open in the state and not very many applicants. We’re going to go into 2023 with a serious workforce shortage and that’s going to continue.”

In the Dallas Fed Energy Survey for Q3, oil and gas executives cited costs and the availability of services and supplies as key constraints to expansion. 

“The cost of supplies and wait times for delivery have increased substantially,” an executive from an exploration and production firm said, while another noted that “Oil and gas industry activity has flatlined. We should incentivize equipment and material manufacturers and suppliers to increase supplies.”

“Sustained double-digit inflation is not the solution for a healthy industry, and projects are becoming uneconomical,” the executive added.