全球海上钻井市场在经历多年不确定性和停滞后正在反弹

海上油气钻井市场看起来正处于投资和活动上升周期的早期阶段 

斯伦贝谢公司和瑞士越洋钻探公司都认为，即将到来的周期将超过2016年-2019年的投资周期和最终投资决定（FID）活动  

海上工程船和钻机的需求正在攀升，大多数新钻机合同的日费率都高于之前的合同

据美国油价网8月8日报道，全球主要油田服务和钻机供应商表示，在经历了多年的不确定性和停滞之后，海上钻井市场正在反弹，正处于投资和活动上升周期的早期阶段，其速度将超过2016年-2019年周期。分析师和高管表示，海上钻机利用率和日费率也在上升，预计未来海上钻井市场将趋紧。

在一份最新的全球海上钻井展望报告中，承包商巨头瑞士越洋钻探公司表示，全球海上钻井市场正在复苏，而复苏势头正在加快。 

瑞士越洋钻探公司首席执行官Jeremy Thigpen上周在评论公司第二季度业绩时表示：“尽管过去8年对整个行业来说都是极具挑战性的，但随着合同活动、高规格超深水和恶劣环境资产的利用率以及日费率的持续上升，海上钻井市场的复苏显然正在进行。” 

“而且，在油气供应面临挑战的背景下，我们越来越相信这种势头在可预见的未来会继续下去。”Thigpen补充道。 

随着世界继续消耗大量的石油和天然气，在地缘政治冲突发生以后，许多国家的政府将能源安全放在加速能源转型的优先地位，全球海上钻井活动将出现好转。

“我们认为情况很清楚，勘探和生产公司将继续从事勘探和开发工作，以满足全球需求，补充不断减少的储量。这在需要我们的资产和服务的海上盆地尤其如此，这些地区的可采储量水平较高，碳强度相对较低。”Thigpen在财报电话会议上如是表示。 

这位高管补充称：“随着大宗商品价格持续走高，海上钻井项目的经济效益仍具有持续发展的吸引力。”

Thigpen表示，随着钻井船利用率保持在90%以上，瑞士越洋钻探公司认为海上高产能钻井资产市场将迅速收紧，未来还将进一步收紧。 

上个月，世界上最大的油田服务提供商斯伦贝谢公司也对海上油气钻井市场表达了类似的乐观态度。  

斯伦贝谢公司首席执行官Olivier Le Peuch在7月份举行的公司财报电话会议上表示：“2022年-2025年海外投资和FID活动的前景将明显超过2016年-2019年周期。因此，我们迎来了这个海上周期的早期阶段，但它非常有吸引力。”

他说：“我们也看到了海上油气资源的回归，这是一个只会继续扩大的特点。如果仅仅从数量上看，在浅水区作业的自升式大型钻机的需求数量实际上比之前的周期要高，超过了300部，深水钻机也开始赶上来。”Le Peuch补充道。 

Rystad能源服务研究高级副总裁Oddmund Føre在今年6月表示，海上工程船和海上钻机的使用率不断上升，日费率也随之上升，“多年来一直处于困境的海上钻井市场终于可以从之前的努力中获益”。

韦斯特伍德全球能源集团海上能源服务经理Mark Adeosun在一份关于承包商未来几年海上支出的报告中写道：“在2020年-2021年期间，由于疫情、石油需求下降和油价暴跌，海上油气行业将迎来一轮投资热潮，以弥补过去几年有限的支出。”

韦斯特伍德全球能源集团钻机市场情报服务机构RigLogix的研究总监Teresa Wilkie表示，据韦斯特伍德称，钻机利用率呈上升趋势，越来越多目前闲置的设备将进入海上钻井船队。  

Wilkie指出：“近几年来，由于承诺使用率的增加，大多数新钻机合同的日费率都高于之前的合同，这是海上钻机市场趋紧的另一个指标。”

李峻 编译自 美国油价网

原文如下：

Offshore Drilling Is Coming Back With A Bang

·     It looks like the offshore oil and gas drilling market is in the early innings of an upcycle in investment and activity.

·     Both Schlumberger and Transocean believe that the upcoming cycle will outpace the 2016-2019 cycle of investment and FID activity.

·     Demand for offshore vessels and rigs is climbing, with most new rig contracts being fixed at day rates that are higher than their prior contracts.

After years of uncertainty and stagnation, the offshore drilling market is on the rebound and is in the early innings of an upcycle in investment and activity that will outpace the 2016-2019 cycle, major services and rig providers say.  Analysts and top offshore drilling executives say that offshore rig utilization and day rates are also rising in a market that is expected to tighten going forward.

In one of the latest outlooks on global offshore drilling, contractor giant Transocean says that the market is recovering, with momentum accelerating.  

"While the past eight years have been extremely challenging for the entire industry, it is clear that the recovery in offshore drilling is underway, as contracting activity, utilization rates for high-specification ultra-deepwater and harsh-environment assets, and dayrates all continue to rise," Transocean CEO Jeremy Thigpen said last week, commenting on the company's Q2 performance. 

"And, with a backdrop of hydrocarbon supply challenges, we are increasingly encouraged that this momentum could continue for the foreseeable future,"

Thigpen added.

As the world continues to consume a lot of oil and gas and many governments are prioritizing energy security to an accelerated energy transition after the war, the offshore drilling activity is set for an upturn. 

"We believe the case is clear that E&P companies will continue to engage in exploration and development work to meet worldwide demand and replenish diminishing reserves. This is especially true in the offshore basins requiring our assets and services where recoverable reserve levels are high and carbon intensity is relatively low," Transocean's Thigpen said on the earnings call. 

"With sustained constructive commodity prices, the economics of offshore projects remain compelling for continued development," the executive added. 

The company sees a rapid tightening of the offshore market for high capability drilling assets in various regions with committed drillship utilization remaining above 90%, and further tightening is on the horizon, Thigpen said. 

Last month, the world's largest oilfield services provider, Schlumberger, expressed a similarly optimistic view on offshore oil and gas drilling.

"The outlook for 2022, 2025 on offshore investments and FID activity will outpace visibly at 2016-2019 cycle. So we have early innings of this offshore cycle, but it's quite interesting," Schlumberger's CEO Olivier Le Peuch said on the earnings call in July. 

"We see also offshore, the return of offshore being a characteristic that will only expand going forward. If you were to just look at the -- in terms of numbers, the number of jack-up big operating in shallow waters is actually on par higher than it has been for the previous cycles, more than 300, and deepwater is starting to catch up," Le Peuch added. 

The market for offshore vessels and rigs sees utilization on the rise, followed by day rates, "finally allowing a market that has been in distress for many years to reap the benefits of the hard work that has been put down in the interim," Oddmund Føre, Senior Vice President, Energy Service Research, at Rystad Energy said in June. 

"After a turbulent 2020-21 period denominated by the Covid-19 pandemic, the erosion of oil demand and a crash in oil prices, the offshore O&G sector is prime for a flurry of investment to make up for limited spending over the last few years," Mark Adeosun, Manager - Offshore Energy Services, at Westwood Global Energy Group, wrote in an insight on contractor spending offshore over the next few years.

According to Westwood, rig utilization is trending higher, and more currently inactive units are set to enter the offshore vessel fleet, says Teresa Wilkie, Research Director of Westwood's rig market intelligence service RigLogix. 

"For the first time in several years, due to this increasing committed utilisation, most new rig contracts are being fixed at dayrates that are higher than their prior contracts - another indicator of a tightening rig market," Wilkie noted.