据美国钻井网站2022年7月26日报道，美国能源信息署（EIA）在其最新一期的短期能源展望（STEO）报告中下调了今年和明年布伦特原油价格预测。
根据7月份STEO报告, EIA现在预计布伦特原油现货的平均价格今年将达到每桶104.05美元，2023年将达到每桶93.75美元。EIA在6月份发布的上一期STEO报告中预测，今年布伦特原油现货平均价格将为每桶107.37美元，明年将为每桶97.24美元。
EIA在7月份STEO报告中预测，今年第三季度布伦特原油的平均现货价格将达到每桶104.27美元，第四季度将达到每桶96.97美元。在之前的STEO报告中，EIA预计今年布伦特原油第三季度和第四季度平均现货油价分别为每桶111.28美元和104.97美元。
展望2023年的季度数据，EIA最新的STEO报告预测，布伦特原油明年第一季度、第二季度、第三季度和第四季度的现货价格平均分别为每桶95美元、94美元、93美元和93美元。EIA在6月份STEO报告中预测，布伦特原油第一季度、第二季度、第三季度和第四季度现货价格分别为每桶99.30美元、96.65美元、96美元和97美元。
EIA在最新的STEO报告中表示：“我们预计，布伦特原油价格在今年下半年将平均为每桶101美元，然后在2023年跌至每桶94美元。”
EIA说：“预测的价格下跌是今年底全球石油库存预计增加的结果。根据我们的预测，大部分价格下跌将发生在今年下半年，从6月份的平均每桶123美元下降到第四季度的每桶97美元。”
李峻 编译自 美国钻井网站
原文如下：
USA EIA Lowers Oil Price Forecasts
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) lowered its Brent crude oil price forecasts for 2022 and 2023 in its latest short term energy outlook (STEO).
According to its July STEO, the EIA now sees the average Brent spot price coming in at $104.05 per barrel this year and $93.75 per barrel in 2023. The EIA’s previous STEO, which was released in June, forecasted that the average Brent spot price would be $107.37 per barrel in 2022 and $97.24 per barrel in 2023.
In its July STEO, the EIA predicts that the average Brent spot price will be $104.27 per barrel in the third quarter of this year and $96.97 per barrel in the fourth quarter. In its previous STEO, the EIA saw the 3Q and 4Q averages coming in at $111.28 per barrel and $104.97 per barrel, respectively.
Looking at 2023 quarterly figures, the EIA’s latest STEO sees 1Q, 2Q, 3Q, and 4Q Brent spot prices averaging $95 per barrel, $94 per barrel, $93 per barrel, and $93 per barrel, respectively. The EIA’s June STEO saw 1Q, 2Q, 3Q, and 4Q Brent spot prices coming in at $99.30 per barrel, $96.65 per barrel, $96 per barrel, and $97 per barrel, respectively.
“We expect the Brent crude oil price will average $101 per barrel in 2H22 and then fall to $94 per barrel in 2023,” the EIA stated in its latest STEO.
“The forecast price declines are the result of expected increases in global oil inventories in late 2022. Most of the price declines in our forecast occur in 2H22, with prices falling from $123 per barrel on average in June to $97 per barrel in 4Q22,” the EIA added.
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