据道琼斯7月7日消息，杰富瑞公司在一份报告中表示，预计2025年前，全球液化天然气（LNG）的需求将超过供应，荷兰皇家壳牌和道达尔能源最有可能从这个供不应求的市场中受益。
杰富瑞公司估计，2030年前全球LNG消费量将以年均5%的复合速度增长，2030年代将放缓至年均2%的复合速度增长。这将受到新的亚洲进口国、中国需求的持续高增长以及新的运输燃料应用的推动。
杰富瑞公司分析师表示:“我们认为，天然气是发展中经济体的关键过渡燃料，印度和中国是最大的增长驱动力，超过了欧洲、日本和北美需求下降的影响。”
杰富瑞公司表示，再加上2021年和2022年投产的项目有限，这应该会使全球LNG市场吃紧，现货LNG价格在中期内将保持在较高水平。这将特别有利于壳牌和道达尔能源等公司，它们在现货定价方面的能力相对较高，而合同销售仍受到卡塔尔积极营销的压力。
杰富瑞表示，在大型能源公司中，壳牌拥有最好的LNG业务。这家英荷集团拥有最大的产能组合，预计到2025年，其产能每年将至少增加700万吨。此外，壳牌的盈亏平衡点较低，在所有综合石油公司中现货LNG销售比例最高。它还拥有最多的LNG运输船，并持有三个再气化设施的股权。
道达尔能源公司被视为紧随其后的竞争者。然而，杰富瑞表示，在LNG运输能力方面，这家法国公司落后于壳牌。
然而，杰富瑞表示，从2025年开始，这种情况应该会改变，因为一波项目将投产，新增LNG货物将进入市场。这些项目包括壳牌)的加拿大LNG项目、埃克森美孚的Golden Pass项目、俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司(Gazprom)的波罗的海LNG项目以及卡塔尔石油公司的North Field East项目。
张春晓 摘译自 道琼斯
原文如下：
Tight LNG Market to Benefit Shell, TotalEnergies
Global demand for liquefied natural gas is expected to outpace supply until 2025, and Royal Dutch Shell PLC and TotalEnergies SE are best placed to benefit from this tight market, Jefferies says in a report.
LNG consumption should grow at a compound annual rate of 5% through 2030, and at 2% during the 2030s, Jefferies estimates. This will be driven by new Asian importing countries, continued high growth in Chinese demand and new transport fuel applications.
"We see gas as a key transition fuel for developing economies with India and China being the biggest growth drivers, more than offsetting demand decline in Europe, Japan and North America," Jefferies analysts say.
Combined with limited project start-ups in 2021 and 2022, this should keep the market tight and spot LNG prices at an elevated level in the medium term, the bank says. This will particularly favor companies such as Shell and Total, which have a relatively higher degree of exposure to spot pricing--as opposed to contracted sales which remain under pressure by Qatar's aggressive marketing.
Shell has the best LNG business among the big energy companies, according to Jefferies. The Anglo-Dutch group has the largest production capacity portfolio and is expected to increase it by at least 7 million tons a year by the middle of the decade. Moreover, Shell has a low break-even point and the highest proportion of spot LNG sales of all integrated oil companies. It also has the greatest number of LNG carriers and holds equity stakes in three regasification facilities.
TotalEnergies is seen as a close second. However, the French company lags behind Shell in terms of LNG shipping capacity and ESG credentials, according to Jefferies.
From 2025 onward, however, this should change, as a wave of projects will be commissioned and new volumes will enter the market, Jefferies says. Those include Shell's LNG Canada, Exxon Mobil Corp.'s Golden Pass, Gazprom PJSC's Baltic LNG, and Qatar Petroleum's North Field East.
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