据经济时报7月6日消息：国际能源署(IEA)预测，2021年印度天然气消费量将增长4.5%，而全球需求将反弹3.6%。
根据IEA最新报告，预计到2024年，全球天然气需求将比2019年疫情前水平增长7%。由于北半球异常暖冬和新冠肺炎大流行的影响，2020年全球需求下降了1.9%。
IEA能源市场与安全主管Keisuke Sadamori说：“天然气需求的反弹表明，全球经济正在疫情的冲击中复苏，天然气正继续取代排放强度更高的燃料。”2020年至2024年间，近一半的天然气需求增长来自亚太地区。
尽管第一季度印度天然气需求同比下降5%，但预计2021年印度天然气需求仍将增长4.5%。IEA表示:“正在进行的第二波液化天然气价格高企对经济的影响，给我们的预测带来了下行风险。”
IEA称，今年第一季度液化天然气消费出现萎缩，因为东北亚冬季能源危机后现货价格高企抑制了需求，尤其是在炼油和石化行业，据报道，一些运营商已从进口液化天然气转向液体燃料。
与新冠肺炎相关的封锁和液化天然气价格高企也影响了第二季度的需求。
在亚洲，第二季度液化天然气现货价格同比增长逾四倍，平均达到9.8美元/百万英热，创下2014年以来第二季度的最高水平。印度和韩国的强劲购买兴趣，加上液化厂计划内的停产，为液化天然气现货价格提供了上行支撑。
IEA的数据显示，今年下半年，亚洲现货价格的平均水平将接近13美元/百万英热，从而导致全年平均价格超过11美元/百万英热，这是自2014年以来的最高水平。
冯娟 摘译自 经济时报
原文如下：
India’s natural gas consumption to rise 4.5% in 2021: IEA
India’s natural gas consumption will rise 4.5% while global demand will rebound by 3.6% in 2021, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has forecast.
By 2024, the global gas demand is forecast to be up 7% from 2019’s pre-Covid levels, according to the IEA’s latest report. Global demand dropped by 1.9% in 2020 due to an exceptionally mild winter in the northern hemisphere and the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic.
“The rebound in gas demand shows that the global economy is recovering from the shock of the pandemic and that gas is continuing to replace more emission-intensive fuels,” said Keisuke Sadamori, the IEA’s director of energy markets and security. Almost half of the increase in gas demand between 2020 and 2024 comes from the Asia Pacific region.
India’s gas demand is expected to expand by 4.5% in 2021 despite a 5% year-on-year contraction in the first quarter. “The economic fallout from the ongoing second wave and high LNG prices present downside risks to our forecast,” the IEA said.
Consumption contracted in the first quarter “as high spot LNG prices in the aftermath of the northeast Asian winter energy crisis tempered demand, especially in the refining and petrochemical sectors, where some operators reportedly switched from imported LNG to liquid fuels,” according to the IEA.
Covid-linked lockdowns and high LNG prices hurt demand also in the second quarter.
In Asia, LNG spot prices more than quadrupled year-on-year in Q2 to reach an average of $9.8/MBtu—their highest Q2 average since 2014. “Strong buying interest from India and Korea, together with a combination of planned and unplanned outages in liquefaction plants, provided upward support to LNG spot prices,” said the IEA.
Asian spot prices are set to average close to $13/MBtu through the second half of the year, resulting in an overall annual average of over $11/MBtu—the highest level since 2014, according to the IEA.
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