据油价网4月7日消息称，美国能源情报署在今年的夏季燃料展望中称，今年夏天汽油价格可能触及三年来最高水平。
该机构表示，预计新冠对美国燃料市场的影响将持续，但比去年有所减弱。他指出，疫苗接种活动和联邦政府的刺激措施势必会加强该国的经济复苏，并作为其中的一部分，刺激更大的燃料需求。
因此，EIA预测今年夏季汽油均价可能为2.78美元/加仑，高于去年的2.07美元/加仑。EIA指出，去年的驾驶季平均水平是2004年以来的最低水平，因为新冠破坏了需求。
该机构还表示，尽管今年基准原油价格将高于去年，但由于需求的增长，预计炼油利润将提高。美国能源情报署预计，今年夏季的平均炼油利润率将比2020年夏季的平均水平高出0.09美元/加仑，为0.45美元/加仑。
EIA称，预计今年8月汽油消费量将触及910万桶/日的季节性峰值。这将大大高于去年8月记录的850万桶/天，但仍低于2019年8月新冠前的980万桶/天的水平。
EIA称，受疫情影响，汽油消费的上行潜力仍然有限。尽管创造了数十万个新工作岗位，这通常意味着更多的出行和更高的汽油需求，但许多人可能会继续在家工作，因为许多公司仍保持谨慎，或采用混合工作模式。
EIA表示：“尽管随着越来越多的美国人接种疫苗且病例水平下降，与COVID-19相关的旅行建议和社会限制可能会在夏季得到缓解，但某些行为上的改变可能会更加持久，这可能会进一步限制汽油消费量的增长。这些行为变化的程度将导致EIA对汽油消费预测的不确定性。”
曹海斌 摘译自 油价网
原文如下：
EIA: Gas Prices At the Pump Could Hit 3-Year High
Gasoline prices could hit the highest in three years this summer, the Energy Information Administration said in this year’s edition of its Summer Fuels Outlook.
The authority said it expected the impact of the pandemic on fuel markets in the United States to remain but weaken from last year, noting the vaccination drive and the federal government stimulus measures that are bound to reinforce the economic recovery of the country and, as part of it, spur greater fuel demand.
As a result, the EIA forecast gasoline prices could average $2.78 per gallon this summer, up from $2.07 per gallon last year. Last year’s average for the driving season was the lowest since 2004, the EIA noted, because of the pandemic, which destroyed demand.
The authority also said it expected refining margins to improve thanks to this improving demand, even though benchmark crude oil prices will be higher this year than last. At $0.45 per gallon, the average refining margin the EIA projected for this summer would be $0.09 per gallon higher than the average for summer 2020.
The EIA said it expected gasoline consumption to hit a seasonal peak of 9.1 million bpd this August. This would be substantially higher than the 8.5 million bpd it recorded for August last year but still lower than pre-pandemic levels, at 9.8 million bpd for August 2019.
The upside potential in gasoline consumption remains limited because of the pandemic, the EIA said. Despite the creation of hundreds of thousands of new jobs, which would typically mean more commuting and therefore higher gasoline demand, many people are likely to continue working from home as many companies remain cautious or adopt a hybrid work model.
“Although COVID-19 related travel recommendations and social restrictions are likely to ease over the summer as more Americans are vaccinated and case levels fall, some behavioral changes might be more lasting, which could further limit increases in gasoline consumption,” the EIA said. “The degree to which these behavioral changes will occur contributes to the uncertainty in EIA’s gasoline consumption forecast.”
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