据今日油价4月5日报道，在过去的一个季度里，美国石油生产商对油价和需求的态度变得更加乐观，并且已经从去年的低谷开始增加了钻井活动。在2020年12月和2021年1月，原油产量稳定在1110万桶/天左右，而目前WTI原油价格超过60美元/桶，石油钻机数量的增加预示着今年下半年的月度产量将上升。
路透社专栏作家John Kemp表示，考虑到钻井活动在开始反映高油价之前还有几个月的滞后时间，钻井活动与石油产量变化之间还有6个月的滞后时间，最早将在本季度将开始看到美国产量增加。
如果美国油价维持在每桶60美元左右，今年下半年产量增长可能进一步加剧。在这个价格点上，美国页岩区块的许多开采都是有利可图的。
预计今年石油产量的增长将只是渐进的，因为许多大型上市生产商更愿意提高股东回报，而不是将现金流以外的资金投入到钻井项目上。然而，一些私营页岩生产商可能会继续为了产量增长而增加钻井。这是因为每桶60-65美元的油价将在这些产量增加的水平上给他们的收入带来相当大的提升，特别是在没有华尔街审查产出决定的情况下。
分析人士表示，目前的钻井活动速度远低于去年年初，可能仅够维持美国石油产量的稳定。但每桶60美元的油价也不应被低估。
上周最新的达拉斯联邦能源调查显示，在美国所有产油区，新井的盈亏平衡价格在46美元/桶至58美元/桶之间，二叠纪盆地的盈亏平衡价格平均为50美元/桶。Enverus董事总经理伊恩•尼布尔(Ian Nieboer)上月向英国《金融时报》表示:“在每桶65美元的油价下，没有什么东西是行不通的。”他指出，新发现的规律可能会逐渐消失。
美国石油钻机数量显示钻井活动正在恢复。贝克休斯最新的钻机数量报告显示，上周美国公司的钻机数量达到了去年1月以来的最高水平，在一周内增加了13台钻机。
达拉斯联储调查显示，2021年第一季度，石油和天然气活动强劲扩张。六个月前景也明显改善，该指数从2020年第四季度的21.6升至2021年第一季度的70.6，为该调查五年历史上的最高水平。
根据EIA的最新数据，2021年1月美国原油产量为1108万桶/天，而2020年12月为1110万桶/天，德克萨斯州1月原油产量环比增长0.5%，至466.3万桶/天。2月和3月的数据因德克萨斯州的冰冻天气而下降，导致每日数百万桶的石油生产关闭了一个多星期。
从第二季度开始，温暖的天气、超过60美元/桶的油价以及显著改善的前景将重振美国的钻井活动。由于油价上涨、钻井活动和产量增加的滞后，今年的收益可能微乎其微。然而，明年美国的平均产量可能高达1200万桶/天。这是EIA在3月份的《短期能源展望》(STEO)中做出的最新预测。由于预期油价较高，EIA将2022年的日产量预期较2月份的预测上调50万桶。当然，美国的石油产量和高于预期的增长速度不会被欧佩克及其盟国忽视。
上个月，该联盟基本上把减产时间延长到了4月份，或多或少是押注于美国生产商将继续限制产量。但本月，欧佩克+决定在未来三个月逐步恢复每月增产，增加的产量将超过100万桶/天。这一决定在很大程度上是基于以下预期:随着出行季的开始，以及主要经济体推出刺激经济增长的计划，全球石油需求将会增强。
如果美国钻探活动的增长超过预期,欧佩克+可能再次陷入两难境地：通过向市场投放更多石油，让油价下滑；或者通过每月谨慎的上调石油供应规模，继续支撑油价，但会让美国页岩油占得便宜。
王佳晶 摘译自 今日油价
原文如下：
U.S. Oil Production Is about To Climb
Over the past quarter, U.S. oil producers have turned much more optimistic about oil prices and demand and have already increased drilling activity from last year’s trough.
Crude oil production has stabilized at around 11.1 million barrels per day (bpd) in December 2020 and January 2021, while current oil prices at over $60 per barrel WTI and rising numbers of oil-directed rigs point to monthly rises in output later this year.
Considering that there is a lag of several months before drilling activity begins to reflect higher oil prices and another six-month lag between drilling activity trends and changes in oil production, the U.S. is about to start seeing increased output as early as this quarter, Reuters columnist John Kemp says.
Output gains could further intensify in the second half of the year if U.S. oil prices hold around $60 a barrel. At this price point, many - if not all - areas in the U.S. shale patch are profitable to drill.
The rise in oil production is expected to be only gradual this year because many large listed producers would prefer to improve shareholder returns instead of investing beyond their cash flows into drilling. However, some private shale producers could continue to boost drilling for production growth’s sake. This is because $60-65 oil would give a sizable boost to their revenues at those increased production levels, especially since they don’t have Wall Street scrutinizing (and punishing) their output decisions.
The current pace of drilling activity is much lower than at the start of last year, and it is likely just enough to keep U.S. oil production stable, analysts say. But the ‘siren song’ of $60 oil shouldn’t be underestimated.
Across all U.S. oil-producing regions, average breakeven prices to profitably drill a new well range from $46 to $58 per barrel, with breakeven prices in the Permian averaging $50 a barrel, the latest Dallas Fed energy survey for Q1 showed last week. “There’s nothing that doesn’t work at $65 a barrel,” Ian Nieboer, a managing director at Enverus, told the Financial Times last month, noting that the newly-found discipline could fade away.
The U.S. oil rig count points to recovering drilling activity. American firms added last week the highest number of rigs, 13, in one week since January last year, the latest Baker Hughes Rig Count report showed.
During the first quarter of 2021, oil and gas activity expanded strongly, the Dallas Fed survey showed. Six-month outlooks also improved notably, with the index rising from 21.6 in Q4 2020 to 70.6 in Q1 2021, which was the highest reading in the survey’s five-year history.
As per the latest available EIA data, U.S. crude oil production stood at 11.08 million bpd in January 2021, compared to 11.1 million bpd in December 2020, with Texas oil production rising by 0.5 percent month over month to 4.663 million bpd in January.
The figures in February and March will be lower due to the Texas Freeze, which shut in millions of barrels of oil production per day for more than a week.
Beginning in the second quarter, warmer weather, $60-plus oil prices, and significantly improved outlooks are set to reinvigorate American drilling activity. This year’s gains could be minimal because of the lag from oil price hikes to drilling activity to production boost. Next year, however, U.S. production could average as much as 12 million bpd. That’s the latest EIA forecast from the March Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). The EIA raised its 2022 production outlook by 500,000 bpd compared to the estimate from February because of higher expected oil prices.
Of course, U.S. oil production and faster-than-expected increases will not go unnoticed by OPEC and its allies in the OPEC+ group.
Last month, the alliance essentially rolled over the production cuts into April, more or less betting on continued restraint from American producers. But this month, OPEC+ decided it is gradually returning to monthly production hikes over the next three months for a total of more than 1 million bpd. Much of the decision was based on expectations that global oil demand will strengthen with the start of the driving season and with major economies rolling out packages to support growth.
If U.S. drilling activity grows more than initially expected, OPEC+ could be caught between a rock and a hard place this summer, again: let oil prices slide by putting more oil on the market, or continue supporting oil prices with careful monthly increases, thus letting U.S. shale to take advantage.
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