据2月7日The Nation报道，Rystad Energy表示，今年世界排名前30位的大油井项目，其中大部分将会在北美、南美和非洲地区进行钻探。值得一提的是，这个排名是通过对包括成功率高低及其对运营商的重要性等因素进行一系列评估后得出的。
这家总部位于奥斯陆的咨询公司在一份最新的报告中表示：“美洲和非洲仍是勘探大项目关注的热点地区，有19口油井在这些地区进行勘探，其中，北美7口、南美6口、非洲6口。”
报告称，名单上46%的油井由大型石油公司运营，这显示了石油巨头对高风险、高回报前景油井的持续投资意愿。在过去四年，全球共钻探了120口井，但只有50口获得了石油发现。2017年以来，这些大油井最集中的地区是欧洲西北部，共有22口，其中，挪威14口、英国6口、爱尔兰2口。
值得一提的是，法国道达尔（Total）石油公司在安哥拉的Ondjaba-1油井和在纳米比亚的Venus油井也在这份名单上。此外，这些油井还包含在埃克森美孚（ExxonMobil）在巴西水域的Opal勘探计划和壳牌（Shell）在墨西哥的海上钻探计划中。
Rystad表示：“今年大多数在计划中的勘探大项目都希望可以获得巨大的前景，如果成功，将显著增加2021年新增的可开采储量。预计这些油井的可采储量将超过130亿桶。”
Rystad表示，去年因新冠肺炎疫情，油气井的钻探受到影响，但总体结果仍是积极的。2020年，勘探成功率从2019年的32%升至41%，发现的石油储量高达32亿桶，创四年来新高。原计划2020年共有35口大型油井，但从目前的情况看，其中16口被推迟到2021年或更久以后，6口已被搁置。
Rystad高级分析师Taiyab Zain Shariff表示：“随着市场状况改善，顺应当前发展局势，预计从这些推迟的油井中开采的石油将通过管道输送。这意味着今年大型勘探活动可能反弹至2019年的水平。美洲地区的勘探数量或将与去年持平。其中，墨西哥将作为勘探主导地区，在那里将有5口油井有望勘探成功。”
由于欧佩克+的减产，油价在过去几周有所回升。众所周知，沙特阿拉伯还宣布在2月和3月单方面额外减产100万桶/天，以支撑石油市场。
朱小庆吉 摘译自 The Nation
原文如下：
Majority of world’s high impact oil wells to be in Africa and the Americas in 2021
The majority of the world’s top 30 high-impact oil wells will be drilled in North and South America and in Africa this year, according to Rystad Energy.
“These regions [the America and Africa] continue to be the hotspots for high-impact exploration, with 19 of the top 30 wells, seven in North America, six in South America and six in Africa,” the Oslo-based consultancy said in a new report.
Rystad classifies wells as high-impact after assessing a number of factors including the size of the prospects and their significance to the operator.
Major oil companies operate 46 per cent of the wells included in the list “showcasing their continued appetite to invest in high-risk, high-reward prospects”, it said. In total, 120 high-impact wells have been drilled globally over the past four years but only 50 have resulted in discoveries. The region with the highest concentration of high-impact wells since 2017 has been Northwest Europe with 22, of which 14 were drilled in Norway, six in the UK and two in Ireland.
The list includes ExxonMobil’s Opal prospect in Brazilian waters and Shell’s offshore drilling plans in Mexico. It also includes French oil company Total’s wells Ondjaba-1 in Angola and Venus in Namibia.
“A majority of this year’s expected high-impact wells are targeting large prospects which, if successful, could significantly increase the new recoverable volumes of 2021,” Rystad Energy said. “All in all, the pre-drill resource potential of this year’s top-30 line-up is estimated to surpass 13 billion barrels of oil equivalent.”
Drilling of high-impact oil and gas wells was affected last year due to the global pandemic, but “overall results were nevertheless positive”, according to Rystad. The success rate rose to 41 per cent in 2020 from 32 per cent the year before and pushed discovered volumes to 3.2 billion barrels of oil equivalent, a four-year high.
A total of 35 high-impact wells were originally planned for 2020. Out of these, 16 were delayed until 2021 or beyond and six were shelved, according to the report.
“With market conditions improving, we expect delayed wells to be moved through the pipeline along with new prospects,” Taiyab Zain Shariff, senior analyst at Rystad Energy, said.
“This means high-impact activity could rebound to 2019 levels this year. The Americas region is likely to almost match last year’s number of high-impact wells, with Mexico as the driving force with five prospects.”
Oil prices have recovered in the last few weeks, thanks to production curbs by Opec and its allies. Saudi Arabia also announced a surprise unilateral one million barrels per day production cut in February and March to support oil markets.
