1. 斯库拉托夫斯卡雅-2井 (俄罗斯)
斯库拉托夫斯卡雅-2井是俄气在位于北极喀拉海的斯库拉托夫斯卡雅区块的第二口探井，最有可能获得今年最大的天然气发现。有几个理由可以证实这一说法。首先，尽管斯库拉托夫斯卡雅区块位于海上，但它与世界上最大的天然气田博瓦年科夫大气田相邻。其次，以前在喀拉海的所有钻探活动都发现了大量天然气储量；最新一个发现是斯库拉托夫斯卡雅-1井，此井发现了2020亿立方米的3P储量，这个新气田很快被更名为“75 Let Pobedy”，以纪念苏联在二战中的胜利。虽然俄气明显不急于开发成本高昂的北极气田，并打算在2030年后投产这些气田，但俄气仍在积极推进钻井，斯库拉托夫斯卡雅-2井的钻井作业预计将在今年夏季进行。
疫情大流行也把印度尼西亚Rencong- 1X井——一口位于苏门答腊岛北部的一个潜在开放边界上的海上初探井——的开钻时间推迟到了2021年。拥有51%股份并担任作业者的西班牙雷普索尔公司和拥有49%股份的马来西亚国家石油公司将以迄今为止从未钻探过的Tampur碳酸盐岩地层(上始新统/下渐新统)为目标，估计拥有4万亿立方英尺的天然气资源。Rencong- 1X井距离苏门答腊岛海岸线40公里，水深1000米-1100米。雷普索尔公司在项目管理上也遇到了不少困难，主要是要提供一艘符合印尼法规的合适的钻井船，但现在看来，这些困难都已得到解决。在印尼成熟天然气产量稳步下降的背景下，一个新的富气前沿的出现可能会在北苏门答腊盆地引发一场小小的革命。
在我们排名前5大钻井项目中，津巴布韦可以说是最有争议的项目，津巴布韦没有探明的油气储量，经常依赖其他邻国来满足其国内能源需求。然而，今年，由于这个非洲国家鲁丰萨盆地的评估活动升温，这种依赖情况可能会完全改变。SG 4571区块的运营商Invictus能源公司在2020-2021年启动了地震测量计划，目前正开始准备钻探姆扎拉巴尼-1远景构造，该远景构造覆盖面积超过200平方公里。这口初探井将在今年10月至11月开钻，总深度超过4000米，目标是确认这个远景构造的4.5万亿立方英尺的潜在资源。据运营商称，SG 4571的总评估油气储量分别为2.94亿桶和9.25万亿立方英尺。
李峻 编译自 油价网
The Top 5 Natural Gas Wildcats Of 2021
Having assessed the most promising oil-focused exploration wells of 2021, the time has come to do pinpoint this year’s up-and-coming gas wildcats. It will not be easy to forget and let go of all the difficulties that 2020 generated – global gas production decreased by 4% compared to 2019, capital expenditures were cut across all continents, exploration wells were routinely delayed until external conditions improve. In some cases, the COVID-induced market depression has had unexpected consequences that either directly or indirectly impact exploration drilling – look no further than insurgents in Mozambique debilitating the 13mtpa Mozambique LNG project. Not everything was negative in 2020, albeit one needs to relativize the concept of success – for instance, the 2020 oil and gas price slump has insulated gas demand from an even steeper decline as low prices made it financially viable to ramp up gas-powered generation.
Interestingly, projects focusing on LNG entertained higher odds of keeping their market share as overall global LNG demand actually increased over the course of 2020, attaining an all-time high of 362-363 million tons LNG. Simultaneously, gas production that was less mobile and flexible in terms of diversified outlet markets suffered tangibly more, as attested by US gas producers and Europe’s main pipeline supplier, Gazprom. With this being said, one might assume that exploration wells that were drilled with an arrière-pensée for LNG dominated the 2020 landscape and little could be further from the truth. Be it UAE’s Jebel Ali find, South Africa’s Brulpadda or perhaps even Turkey’s Sakarya, the majority of last year’s discoveries will provide much-needed gas for economies that have gotten used to gas imports, spinning a new story of self-sufficiency.
We have analyzed the hottest gas prospects of 2021 and present you the Top 5, fully cognizant of the fact that in depressed times the highest impact wells might come from high-risk wildcats.
The most likely candidate for the largest 2021 gas discovery will be Skuratovskaya-2, Gazprom’s second prospecting well in the Skuratovskaya block in the Arctic Kara Sea. There are several reasons corroborating this claim. First and foremost, despite being offshore the Skuratovskaya block is adjacent to the world’s largest gas field, Bovanenkovo. Second, all previous drillings in the Kara Sea have unearthed massive gas reserves; the last of the discoveries was the Skuratovskaya-1 well which unearthed 202 BCm in 3P reserves (the field was quickly renamed “75 Let Pobedy” to commemorate the Soviet Union’s WWII victory). Although Gazprom is evidently not eager to develop cost-heavy Arctic fields and intends to bring them onstream after 2030, it is still pushing forward with drilling, Skuratovskaya-2 is expected to take place in the summer months.
2. Cronos-1 (Cyprus)
Following the undisputable success of the 6.5 TCf Calypso discovery in 2018, one of the largest gas finds globally in 2018, Total and its partner ENI (both hold 50% of Block 06) are set to drill the Cronos-1 wildcat in the second half of 2021. Initially the wildcat was assumed to be spudded in April 2020, however, the severe impact of COVID-19 delayed it by more than a year. The well, located to the southwest some 150km off the Cypriot coast, will be drilled in water depths of 2300-2400 meters, i.e. several hundred meters deeper than Calypso and Glaucus. The restart of the Idku LNG and the rumored tying-in of Cypriot discoveries to Egypt’s liquefaction infrastructure indicates that should there be a Cronos discovery in late 2021, it would most probably be marketed as LNG.
3. Rencong-1X (Indonesia)
The coronavirus pandemic has also pushed the spudding of Rencong-1X, a potentially frontier-opening offshore wildcat to the north of Sumatra, well into 2021. Repsol (51% stake and operatorship) and Petronas (49%) will target the Tampur Carbonate Formation (Upper Eocene/Lower Oligocene) that has heretofore never been drilled, with estimated resources of 4 TCf. Rencong-1X is located 40km from the Sumatran coastline and will be spudded in water depths of 1000-1100 metres. Repsol has had its fair share of difficulties along the project’s administration, primarily connected to the provision of a suitable drillship all the while complying with Indonesian regulations but now it seems that those travails have been left behind. Against the background of steadily declining mature gas production in Indonesia, the emergence of a new gas-rich frontier might spark a mini-revolution in the North Sumatra Basin.
4. Block 09 (Lebanon)
The French major Total will try to overcome the disappointing result of Lebanon’s first-ever offshore wildcat that was spudded in February 2020. Located within Block 09, Byblos-1 turned out to be non-commercial and was subsequently abandoned. This year the drilling of a second wildcat (still unnamed) in Lebanon’s offshore and there are several reasons to believe that it will fare better than Total’s pioneering wildcat. First and foremost, it is located to the south to Block 09, much closer to the maritime border with Israel, effectively abutting the Tamar field, hence the prospects of the Tamar Sandstone reservoirs would be higher than with Block 04. Due to ongoing Lebanese-Israeli maritime border disputes the operator has so far kept the exact location of the forthcoming wildcat shrouded in secrecy, however one can assume fairly confidently that it will avoid drilling in disputed waters.
5. Mzarabani-1 (Zimbabwe)
Arguably the most disputable project in our Top 5 ranking, Zimbabwe has no known hydrocarbon reserves and has routinely relied on other neighboring countries to cater for its energy needs. This year, however, might alter that picture completely as appraisal activity heats up in the African nation’s Rufunsa Basin. The operator of the SG 4571 block, Invictus Energy, has had seismic surveying programs in 2020-2021 and now is stating its readiness to drill the Mzarabani-1 prospect in Zimbabwe, a 4-way dip closure spread across more than 200km2. The wildcat will be drilled in October-November 2021 to a total depth deeper than 4000m and will aim to confirm the prospect’s prospective resources of 4.5 TCf. According to the operator, the total assessed reserves of the SG 4571 stand at 9.25TCf and 294 MMbbls. Mzarabani will be Zimbabwe’s second-ever wildcat, the first was drilled in 2018 and deemed dry, only confirming the high-risk nature of Zimbabwean drilling.