据美国油价网报道，在评估了今年全球最有前途的专注石油的勘探井之后，现在是确定今年全球最有潜力的天然气初探井的时候了。要忘记并放弃去年带来的所有困难并不容易——与2019年相比，去年全球天然气产量下降了4%，各大洲的资本支出都被削减，勘探井通常被推迟，直到外部条件改善。在某些情况下，新冠肺炎疫情大流行引发的市场萧条产生了意想不到的后果，直接或间接影响了勘探钻井。去年并非一切都是负面的，尽管人们需要将成功的概念相对化——例如，去年的油气价格暴跌使天然气需求免于更大幅度的下降，但是低价格使增加天然气发电在经济上变得可行。
有趣的是，由于去年全球LNG的总体需求量实际上有所增加，达到了3.62亿- 3.63亿吨的历史最高水平，因此专注于LNG项目保持其市场份额的可能性更高。与此同时，美国天然气生产商和欧洲主要管道天然气供应商俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司（俄气）证实，就多元化出口市场而言，流动性和灵活性较低的天然气生产受到的影响明显更大。也就是说，人们可能会认为，去年的天然气勘探井主要是用“内心的想法”（arrière-pensée）钻探的，而事实并非如此。无论是阿联酋的杰贝阿里气田，还是南非的布鲁帕达气田，甚至可能是土耳其的萨卡亚气田，去年发现的大部分天然气都将为那些已经习惯了天然气进口的经济体提供急需的天然气，并创造出自给自足的新局面。
我们分析了全球今年最热门的天然气远景构造，并为您列出了其中的前五个，充分认识到在经济萧条时期，最高影响井可能来自高风险的初探井。
1. 斯库拉托夫斯卡雅-2井 (俄罗斯)
斯库拉托夫斯卡雅-2井是俄气在位于北极喀拉海的斯库拉托夫斯卡雅区块的第二口探井，最有可能获得今年最大的天然气发现。有几个理由可以证实这一说法。首先，尽管斯库拉托夫斯卡雅区块位于海上，但它与世界上最大的天然气田博瓦年科夫大气田相邻。其次，以前在喀拉海的所有钻探活动都发现了大量天然气储量；最新一个发现是斯库拉托夫斯卡雅-1井，此井发现了2020亿立方米的3P储量，这个新气田很快被更名为“75 Let Pobedy”，以纪念苏联在二战中的胜利。虽然俄气明显不急于开发成本高昂的北极气田，并打算在2030年后投产这些气田，但俄气仍在积极推进钻井，斯库拉托夫斯卡雅-2井的钻井作业预计将在今年夏季进行。
2．克洛诺斯-1井 (塞浦路斯)
在2018年全球最大天然气发现之一的拥有6.5万亿立方英尺天然气储量的塞浦路斯卡里普索发现获得了无可争议的成功以后，道达尔公司及其合作伙伴埃尼公司(各持有第6号区块50%股份)计划在今年下半年开钻克洛诺斯-1初探井。最初这口初探井被假设在去年4月开钻，然而，COVID-19大流行的严重影响将此井的开钻时间推迟了一年多。克洛诺斯-1井位于距离塞浦路斯海岸大约150公里的西南部海域，其钻井作业将在水深2300米-2400米的海域进行，即比卡里普索发现和格劳科斯发现还要深几百米。埃及伊德库LNG项目的重启以及塞浦路斯的发现与埃及的液化基础设施的传闻表明，如果克洛诺斯-1井在今年晚些时候获得发现，它很可能会作为LNG在市场推广。
3．Rencong-1X井 (印度尼西亚)
疫情大流行也把印度尼西亚Rencong- 1X井——一口位于苏门答腊岛北部的一个潜在开放边界上的海上初探井——的开钻时间推迟到了2021年。拥有51%股份并担任作业者的西班牙雷普索尔公司和拥有49%股份的马来西亚国家石油公司将以迄今为止从未钻探过的Tampur碳酸盐岩地层(上始新统/下渐新统)为目标，估计拥有4万亿立方英尺的天然气资源。Rencong- 1X井距离苏门答腊岛海岸线40公里，水深1000米-1100米。雷普索尔公司在项目管理上也遇到了不少困难，主要是要提供一艘符合印尼法规的合适的钻井船，但现在看来，这些困难都已得到解决。在印尼成熟天然气产量稳步下降的背景下，一个新的富气前沿的出现可能会在北苏门答腊盆地引发一场小小的革命。
4．第9号区块 (黎巴嫩)
法国道达尔公司将设法克服黎巴嫩有史以来首次海上钻井作业令人失望的结果，首次海上钻井作业在去年2月启动。Byblos-1井位于区块9，由于没有获得具有商业开采价值的油气资源，Byblos-1井随后被放弃。今年，道达尔公司在黎巴嫩海上开钻了第二口至今仍未命名的初探井，有几个理由可以相信第二口初探井的钻井结果会比道达尔公司的先驱初探井要好。首先，它位于区块9的南部，更接近与以色列接壤的海上边界，有效地毗邻以色列塔马尔大气田，因此塔马尔砂岩储集层的远景构造将高于区块4。由于黎巴嫩-以色列海上边界争端不断，运营商一直对即将开钻的初探井的确切位置保密，然而，人们可以相当自信地认为，这口初探井将避免在有争议的水域钻探。
5．姆扎拉巴尼-1井 (津巴布韦)
在我们排名前5大钻井项目中，津巴布韦可以说是最有争议的项目，津巴布韦没有探明的油气储量，经常依赖其他邻国来满足其国内能源需求。然而，今年，由于这个非洲国家鲁丰萨盆地的评估活动升温，这种依赖情况可能会完全改变。SG 4571区块的运营商Invictus能源公司在2020-2021年启动了地震测量计划，目前正开始准备钻探姆扎拉巴尼-1远景构造，该远景构造覆盖面积超过200平方公里。这口初探井将在今年10月至11月开钻，总深度超过4000米，目标是确认这个远景构造的4.5万亿立方英尺的潜在资源。据运营商称，SG 4571的总评估油气储量分别为2.94亿桶和9.25万亿立方英尺。
李峻 编译自 油价网
原文如下：
The Top 5 Natural Gas Wildcats Of 2021
Having assessed the most promising oil-focused exploration wells of 2021, the time has come to do pinpoint this year’s up-and-coming gas wildcats. It will not be easy to forget and let go of all the difficulties that 2020 generated – global gas production decreased by 4% compared to 2019, capital expenditures were cut across all continents, exploration wells were routinely delayed until external conditions improve. In some cases, the COVID-induced market depression has had unexpected consequences that either directly or indirectly impact exploration drilling – look no further than insurgents in Mozambique debilitating the 13mtpa Mozambique LNG project. Not everything was negative in 2020, albeit one needs to relativize the concept of success – for instance, the 2020 oil and gas price slump has insulated gas demand from an even steeper decline as low prices made it financially viable to ramp up gas-powered generation.
Interestingly, projects focusing on LNG entertained higher odds of keeping their market share as overall global LNG demand actually increased over the course of 2020, attaining an all-time high of 362-363 million tons LNG. Simultaneously, gas production that was less mobile and flexible in terms of diversified outlet markets suffered tangibly more, as attested by US gas producers and Europe’s main pipeline supplier, Gazprom. With this being said, one might assume that exploration wells that were drilled with an arrière-pensée for LNG dominated the 2020 landscape and little could be further from the truth. Be it UAE’s Jebel Ali find, South Africa’s Brulpadda or perhaps even Turkey’s Sakarya, the majority of last year’s discoveries will provide much-needed gas for economies that have gotten used to gas imports, spinning a new story of self-sufficiency.
We have analyzed the hottest gas prospects of 2021 and present you the Top 5, fully cognizant of the fact that in depressed times the highest impact wells might come from high-risk wildcats.
1.Skuratovskaya-2 (Russia)
The most likely candidate for the largest 2021 gas discovery will be Skuratovskaya-2, Gazprom’s second prospecting well in the Skuratovskaya block in the Arctic Kara Sea. There are several reasons corroborating this claim. First and foremost, despite being offshore the Skuratovskaya block is adjacent to the world’s largest gas field, Bovanenkovo. Second, all previous drillings in the Kara Sea have unearthed massive gas reserves; the last of the discoveries was the Skuratovskaya-1 well which unearthed 202 BCm in 3P reserves (the field was quickly renamed “75 Let Pobedy” to commemorate the Soviet Union’s WWII victory). Although Gazprom is evidently not eager to develop cost-heavy Arctic fields and intends to bring them onstream after 2030, it is still pushing forward with drilling, Skuratovskaya-2 is expected to take place in the summer months.
2. Cronos-1 (Cyprus)
Following the undisputable success of the 6.5 TCf Calypso discovery in 2018, one of the largest gas finds globally in 2018, Total and its partner ENI (both hold 50% of Block 06) are set to drill the Cronos-1 wildcat in the second half of 2021. Initially the wildcat was assumed to be spudded in April 2020, however, the severe impact of COVID-19 delayed it by more than a year. The well, located to the southwest some 150km off the Cypriot coast, will be drilled in water depths of 2300-2400 meters, i.e. several hundred meters deeper than Calypso and Glaucus. The restart of the Idku LNG and the rumored tying-in of Cypriot discoveries to Egypt’s liquefaction infrastructure indicates that should there be a Cronos discovery in late 2021, it would most probably be marketed as LNG.
3. Rencong-1X (Indonesia)
The coronavirus pandemic has also pushed the spudding of Rencong-1X, a potentially frontier-opening offshore wildcat to the north of Sumatra, well into 2021. Repsol (51% stake and operatorship) and Petronas (49%) will target the Tampur Carbonate Formation (Upper Eocene/Lower Oligocene) that has heretofore never been drilled, with estimated resources of 4 TCf. Rencong-1X is located 40km from the Sumatran coastline and will be spudded in water depths of 1000-1100 metres. Repsol has had its fair share of difficulties along the project’s administration, primarily connected to the provision of a suitable drillship all the while complying with Indonesian regulations but now it seems that those travails have been left behind. Against the background of steadily declining mature gas production in Indonesia, the emergence of a new gas-rich frontier might spark a mini-revolution in the North Sumatra Basin.
4. Block 09 (Lebanon)
The French major Total will try to overcome the disappointing result of Lebanon’s first-ever offshore wildcat that was spudded in February 2020. Located within Block 09, Byblos-1 turned out to be non-commercial and was subsequently abandoned. This year the drilling of a second wildcat (still unnamed) in Lebanon’s offshore and there are several reasons to believe that it will fare better than Total’s pioneering wildcat. First and foremost, it is located to the south to Block 09, much closer to the maritime border with Israel, effectively abutting the Tamar field, hence the prospects of the Tamar Sandstone reservoirs would be higher than with Block 04. Due to ongoing Lebanese-Israeli maritime border disputes the operator has so far kept the exact location of the forthcoming wildcat shrouded in secrecy, however one can assume fairly confidently that it will avoid drilling in disputed waters.
5. Mzarabani-1 (Zimbabwe)
Arguably the most disputable project in our Top 5 ranking, Zimbabwe has no known hydrocarbon reserves and has routinely relied on other neighboring countries to cater for its energy needs. This year, however, might alter that picture completely as appraisal activity heats up in the African nation’s Rufunsa Basin. The operator of the SG 4571 block, Invictus Energy, has had seismic surveying programs in 2020-2021 and now is stating its readiness to drill the Mzarabani-1 prospect in Zimbabwe, a 4-way dip closure spread across more than 200km2. The wildcat will be drilled in October-November 2021 to a total depth deeper than 4000m and will aim to confirm the prospect’s prospective resources of 4.5 TCf. According to the operator, the total assessed reserves of the SG 4571 stand at 9.25TCf and 294 MMbbls. Mzarabani will be Zimbabwe’s second-ever wildcat, the first was drilled in 2018 and deemed dry, only confirming the high-risk nature of Zimbabwean drilling.
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