据油价网2023年8月10日报道，欧佩克8月10日在其最新一期的月度石油市场报告(MOMR)中表示，在即将到来的美国飓风季节，潜在的燃料生产中断可能会在未来几周收紧大西洋盆地市场。
欧佩克对“全球石油市场的稳定”持乐观态度，因为美国和欧洲的汽油和中间馏分油库存低于平均水平，而且预计今年下半年基本面将保持健康。欧佩克在报告的专题文章中表示：“尽管目前全球炼油厂的运行水平较高，但美国和欧洲的汽油和中间馏分油库存仍远低于最近五年的平均水平。”
欧佩克的经济学家在报告中写道：“展望未来，美国飓风季节期间的炼油厂维护和潜在的生产中断可能会使大西洋盆地的市场趋紧，从而促使更强的经济动机推动东西方的产品流动。”
与此同时，欧佩克表示，对今年下半年石油需求强劲的预期，加上欧佩克+随时准备在需要时干预市场，“将确保全球石油市场的稳定”。
此外，欧佩克指出，7月份石油市场基本面前景有所改善，这反映在市场结构的加强上，所有主要石油期货价格都转向了坚实的现货溢价结构。
欧佩克对今年全球石油需求增长的预测与上个月的报告保持不变，预计需求日增240万桶。今年的全球石油总需求预计将日均1.02亿桶。
欧佩克预计，明年全球石油日需求将比今年再日增220万桶，这要归功于全球经济的强劲增长和亚洲经济的持续改善，预计这将提振消费。欧佩克预计2024年全球石油总需求将日均1.043亿桶。
李峻 译自 油价网
原文如下：
OPEC: Robust Demand, U.S. Hurricane Season Could Tighten The Market
Potential fuel production outages during the upcoming U.S. hurricane season could tighten the Atlantic Basin market in the coming weeks, OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) on Thursday.
The cartel is upbeat on the “stability of the global oil market” amid lower-than average gasoline and middle distillate inventories in the United States and Europe and expectations of healthy fundamentals in the second half of 2023. “Despite the current elevated level of global refinery runs, gasoline and middle distillate stocks remain well below the latest five-year averages in the US and Europe,” OPEC said in its feature article in the report.
“Looking forward, refinery maintenance and potential production outages during the US hurricane season could potentially tighten the Atlantic Basin market, hence prompting stronger economic incentives for East-to-West product flows,” the cartel’s economists wrote in the report.
At the same time, expectations of robust oil demand in the second half of the year, plus the OPEC+ readiness to intervene on the market at any time and as needed, “will ensure stability of the global oil market,” OPEC said.
Moreover, OPEC noted that the outlook for oil market fundamentals improved in July, which was reflected in the strengthening of the market structure as all major oil futures prices turned to a firm backwardation structure.
OPEC left its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2023 unchanged from last month’s report, and expects demand growth at 2.4 million barrels per day (bpd). This year’s total global demand is expected to average 102.0 million bpd.
For next year, the cartel sees world oil demand rising by another 2.2 million bpd compared to 2023, thanks to solid global economic growth and continued improvements in Asia which are expected to boost consumption. In 2024, OPEC expects total world oil demand to average 104.3 million bpd.
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