据彭博社2023年8月10日报道，欧佩克日前发布的统计数据显示，由于沙特阿拉伯减产，第三季度全球原油市场日供应缺口将超过200万桶。
欧佩克周四（8月10日）发布的一份报告显示，由于沙特阿拉伯实施了单方面减产以提振市场，欧佩克7月份的原油产量大幅下降。
沙特阿拉伯将按计划在8月和9月维持减产，这意味着欧佩克整个第三季度的平均原油日产量将达到目前的2730万桶。欧佩克的数据显示，这比消费者的每天需求短缺了大约226万桶，这可能导致全球库存两年来最大幅度下降。
伦敦市场油价攀升至每桶近88美元的7个月高位，这是因为全球原油消费量升至历史新高水平，而欧佩克及其合作伙伴限制原油供应，耗尽了美国和其他国家的库存。
主要原油消费国批评沙特阿拉伯及其盟友限制原油产量，并警告称，通胀再次飙升可能会给消费者带来更多痛苦。尽管如此，沙特阿拉伯表示，如果有必要，它可能延长甚至深化供应限制。
不过，全球原油库存也有可能不会像欧佩克预测的那样大幅下降。
对美国经济健康状况的担忧也持续存在。
但就目前而言，全球石油市场显然正在收紧。
根据欧佩克的报告，由于沙特阿拉伯将原油日产量降至约900万桶，7月份欧佩克13个成员国的原油日产量大幅下降83.6万桶。欧佩克估计，发达国家的原油库存已低于五年的平均水平。
更广泛的产油国联盟欧佩克+的原油供应也在减少，而莫斯科正在通过减少原油出口来履行欧佩克+减产协议。
欧佩克预测，今年全球原油日消费量将增加240万桶，达到1.02亿桶。欧佩克预计，2024年全球原油日消费量将进一步增加220万桶。
为石油消费国提供建议的国际能源署（IEA）将于周五公布其对全球石油市场的最新评估。由23个产油国组成的欧佩克+联盟将于11月底开会审议生产政策。
李峻 译自 彭博社
原文如下：
Global oil markets on track for “sharp” supply deficit, OPEC data shows
Global oil markets are on track for a sharp supply deficit of more than 2 MMbpd this quarter as Saudi Arabia slashes production, OPEC data indicate.
Output from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries tumbled last month as the kingdom implemented a unilateral cutback to shore up markets, according to a report from the group on Thursday.
The Saudis will maintain the cut this month and next as planned, meaning OPEC’s production could average the current rate about 27.3 MMbpd for the whole quarter. That’s about 2.26 million a day less than consumers require, potentially resulting in the steepest inventory decline in two years, OPEC data suggest.
Oil prices have climbed to a seven-month high near $88 a barrel in London as world consumption rises toward record levels while OPEC and its partners constrain supply, depleting inventories in the U.S. and elsewhere.
Major consuming nations have criticized the Saudis and their allies for constricting output, warning that a renewed inflationary spike could inflict more pain on consumers. Nonetheless, Riyadh has said it could prolong and even deepen the supply curbs if necessary.
Still, it’s possible that stockpiles don’t fall as dramatically as OPEC’s projections imply.
Demand in China, the world’s biggest importer, is clouded by lackluster economic indicators. The country’s crude imports tumbled in July to the lowest in six months, and its latest consumer price index suggests the Asian giant slid into deflation. Concerns also persist over the health of the U.S. economy.
But for the time being, the oil market is clearly tightening.
Production from OPEC’s 13 members declined by a hefty 836,000 bpd in July as the Saudis lowered production to about 9 MMbpd, according to the group’s report. Oil inventories in developed nations are below their five-year average, OPEC estimates.
Supplies are also shrinking from a wider alliance of producers known as OPEC+. After holding exports steady for months to fund its brutal war against Ukraine, Moscow is belatedly fulfilling an OPEC+ agreement by reducing shipments.
OPEC forecasts that daily global oil consumption will increase by 2.4 MMbbl this year to average 102 MMbbl. It predicts a further increase of 2.2 MMbpd in 2024.
The International Energy Agency, which advises consuming nations, will publish its latest assessment of global oil markets on Friday. The full 23-nation OPEC+ alliance is due to meet for a review of production policy in late November.
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