据油价网8月9日报道，欧洲天然气价格因对澳大利亚供应减少的担忧而在周三飙升超过30％，交易商们因此产生恐慌情绪。澳大利亚是世界领先的天然气供应国之一。欧洲基准价格TFF在周三的盘中交易中飙升至每兆瓦时42欧元，比前一天高出35％，也是自6月中旬以来的最高点。
商品分析师表示，这种突然上涨很可能是因为一些交易商在听闻供应收紧的消息后急于平仓。欧洲未能获得足够的长期液化天然气合同来弥补中断的天然气进口，路透社早些时候预测这可能在下个冬季产生昂贵的代价，并可能严重收紧市场。
欧盟认为天然气是向可再生能源过渡的过渡性燃料，购买方通常难以承诺长期合同。这意味着欧洲可能被迫更多地从现货市场购买，就像在2022年所做的那样，这反过来可能推高价格。咨询师莫尔滕·弗里施早些时候告诉路透社：“由于欧洲的绿色游说团体错误地使政界相信到2030年氢能在很大程度上取代天然气作为能源载体，欧洲已经过度依赖LNG的现货和短期购买。”
2022年年，澳大利亚成为世界上最大的LNG出口国，出口了价值630亿美元的8200万吨LNG，创下了历史新高。这个数字超过了卡塔尔出口的8120万吨和美国出口的7910万吨。但一些天然气专家声称，由于一系列挑战——包括重要的传统天然气田到达寿命周期末期后，储量未能被完全替代以及国内需求增长和项目面临更多的监管审查，澳大利亚可能很快会失去天然气全球市场的领先地位。
澳大利亚在西澳大利亚、昆士兰和北领地拥有10个运营中的LNG项目，总产能为8860万吨/年（Mtpa）。目前正在建设中的Pluto二号生产线项目将在2026年投入运营，使总产能达到9360万吨/年（1260亿立方米）。澳大利亚的LNG项目在可靠性方面表现良好（2022年实现了93%的额定产能）。
胡耀东 译自 油价网
原文如下：
European Gas Prices Surge 30% On Australian Supply Fears
European natural gas prices have rocketed more than 30% on Wednesday, as traders panicked over the possibility of reduced LNG supply from Australia, a world leading supplier of the commodity. The European benchmark,TFF, jumped to as high as €42 per megawatt hour in Wednesday intraday trading, 35% higher than the previous day, and its highest point since mid-June.
Commodity analysts have said that the sudden jump was likely due to some traders rushing to close their short positions on the news of tightening supplies. Europe has failed to secure enough long-term LNG contracts to offset cut-off Russian gas imports, with Reuters earlier predicting this may prove costly next winter and could sharply tighten the market.
The European Union views natural gas as a bridge fuel in the transition to renewable energy, and buyers generally struggle to commit to long-term contracts. This means that Europe might be forced to buy more from the spot markets like it did in 2022, which in turn is likely to push prices up: "Since the green lobby in Europe has managed to persuade politicians wrongly that hydrogen to a large extent can replace natural gas as an energy carrier by 2030, Europe has become far too reliant on spot and short term purchases of LNG," consultant Morten Frisch earlier told Reuters.
Last year, Australia emerged as the world’s leading exporter of LNG, shipping 82.0 million tonnes (Mt) of LNG2 valued at $63 billion, a new world record. That figure eclipsed 81.2 Mt exported by Qatar and 79.1 Mt exported by the United States. But some gas experts have claimed that Australia could soon lose its lead in the gas business due to a host of challenges including reserves not being fully replaced despite important legacy gas fields reaching the end of their lives, growing domestic demand and more regulatory scrutiny.
Australia has 10 operating LNG projects located in Western Australia, Queensland and the Northern Territory with a total capacity of 88.6 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa). The Pluto Train 2 project currently under construction will bring total capacity to 93.6 Mtpa (126 Bcm) when it starts operations in 2026. Australian LNG projects have a good reliability track-record (achieved 93% of nameplate capacity in 2022).
免责声明：本网转载自其它媒体的文章及图片，目的在于弘扬石化精神，传递更多石化信息，宣传国家石化产业政策，展示国家石化产业形象，参与国际石化产业舆论竞争，提高国际石化产业话语权，并不代表本网赞同其观点和对其真实性负责，在此我们谨向原作者和原媒体致以崇高敬意。如果您认为本站文章及图片侵犯了您的版权，请与我们联系，我们将第一时间删除。
