石油巨头预计今年美国页岩油产量将增加

美国主要页岩油生产商希望在今年提高产量，但大幅增产似乎不太可能

无论美国今年的页岩油产量有多高，都不太可能高到足以对国际原油价格构成重大压力

井产能的提高可能不足以抵消美国页岩地区钻井速度的下降

据油价网2023年8月10日报道，在最新的财报季中，美国几家页岩油巨头调整了他们今年的产量预期。令人惊讶的是，他们都向上修正了这些预测。

彭博社在最近发表的一份报告中表示，这一向上修正归因于更高的油井产量，这让人感到意外。由于这一意外，今年美国石油产量的增长将强于此前预期。

如果我们相信路透社调查的分析师对美国页岩行业的看法，根据这些分析师所说，要想大幅提高美国页岩油的产量，仅靠井产能趋势的突然逆转是不够的。

钻井产能的“惊人”增长可能出乎媒体意料，但对于行业来说，这并非完全在意料之外。原因是：那些报告生产率提高的公司表示，他们一直在努力提高他们的钻井效率，而他们已经看到了结果。

美国著名大型独立油气勘探和生产公司先锋自然资源公司的首席执行官斯科特·谢菲尔德去年曾警告称，美国的页岩繁荣已经结束，原因之一是钻井产能下降。

雪佛龙公司公布了第二季度历史新高的产量，因为它专注于二叠纪盆地的得克萨斯州区域，而不是新墨西哥区域。雪佛龙公司预计，今年二叠纪盆地的产量将增加10%。

然而，路透社调查的分析师认为，以目前的钻探速度来看，这不足以显著提高美国的石油总产量，目前的钻探速度仍然低迷。

7月份，美国油田服务供应商敲响了警钟。他们表示，页岩地区对这些服务的需求正在下降，美国三大油服巨头斯伦贝谢公司、哈里伯顿公司和贝克休斯公司都报告了他们北美业务的下降。

美国主要水力压裂公司Liberty Energy的首席执行官克里斯·赖特告诉英国《金融时报》记者：“在第二季度，我们看到水力压裂活动减少，导致我们工作日历上的空白增加。”赖特还表示，如果需求保持在同一水平，该公司可能需要减少其水力压裂队伍的数量。

因此，一方面，勘探和生产公司报告了更高的井生产率，而他们的油田服务提供商则报告了更低的钻井活动。 

与此同时，美国能源信息署（EIA）将其对今年美国石油日总产量的预测上调至历史最高的1280万桶，高于此前预测的1260万桶。据EIA估计，上周美国的石油日产量已经达到1260万桶。

由于更低的钻井成本，美国石油行业估计每年的石油产量将日增85万桶。EIA还指出，油价上涨是推动美国石油产量增加的因素之一。

然而，分析人士指出，美国页岩井的枯竭速度很快，需要更多的钻井活动来抵消这一自然过程，同时大幅提高产量。但页岩巨头并没有这么做，尽管价格上涨，他们仍坚守资本纪律。

所有这些都表明，无论美国今年的石油产量有多高，都不太可能高到足以对国际油价构成重大压力，尤其是考虑到美国石油出口历史新高的速度。

这些出口给油价基准带来了下行压力，但它也有其局限性：欧佩克+的两大领导国原油出口量仍远远超过美国，而且两国都对产量或出口设定了上限。沙特阿拉伯还警告说，它可能会进一步加大减产力度，以保持油价上涨。

这对页岩钻探商来说是个好消息。这让他们有机会减少支出，增加产量，并通过向海外销售更高的产量来赚取更多的钱，这要归功于地缘政治冲突发生前最大的市场——欧洲——以及世界上最大的石油市场——亚洲——强劲而有弹性的需求。

李峻 译自 油价网

原文如下：

Oil Majors Eye Higher Shale Output This Year

·     Major shale oil producers are looking to ramp up output this year, but a very significant production hike seems unlikely.

·     However high U.S. output goes this year, it is not very likely it would go high enough to put significant pressure on international prices.

·     An increase in well productivity may not be enough to offset lower drilling rates in the U.S. shale patch.

The latest earnings season saw several shale oil majors revise their output projections for the year. Surprisingly, they revised these projections upward. 

The revisions were attributed to higher well productivity that Bloomberg said in a recent report had come as a surprise. Thanks to that surprise, U.S. oil production was set for stronger than previously expected growth this year.

Or maybe not, if we are to believe analysts that Reuters polled on their take on the U.S. shale industry. According to these analysts, it would take more than a surprise reversal in well productivity trends to boost U.S. shale oil production meaningfully.

The “surprise” increase in well productivity may have been unexpected for the media, but it certainly wasn’t totally unexpected for the industry. The reason: those companies that reported such productivity improvements said they’d been working at improving their drilling efficiency. And they’ve seen results.

Pioneer Natural Resources, whose CEO Scott Sheffield last year warned that the shale boom is over, citing, among other things, well productivity.

Chevron reported record output for the second quarter as it focused on the Texas part of the Permian rather than the New Mexico side. The company expects 10% higher production from the Permian this year.

Yet the analysts polled by Reuters argue that this will not be enough to boost total U.S. output significantly, not at the current drilling rates, which remain subdued.

Oilfield services providers sounded the alarm last month. They said demand for these services in the shale patch was on the decline, with all three supermajors in the space—SLB, Halliburton, and Baker Hughes—reporting a decline in business for North America.

“During the second quarter, we saw reduced frack activity that resulted in increased white space in our calendar,” Chris Wright, the chief executive of fracking major Liberty Energy, told the FT. Wright also said the company might need to reduce the number of its fracking fleet going forward if demand remained at the same level.

So, on the one hand, exploration and production companies are reporting higher well productivity rates while their oilfield service providers are reporting lower drilling activity.

Meanwhile, the EIA revised up its projection for this year’s U.S. oil total to a record 12.8 million bpd, up from an earlier forecast of 12.6 million bpd. Per EIA estimates, last week saw production hitting 12.6 million bpd already.

The industry itself appears to estimate the annual boost in production at 850,000 bpd, thanks to these longer laterals and lower drilling costs. The EIA also cites higher oil prices as drivers of higher production.

Yet analysts note the fast depletion rates of shale wells, noting that it would take a lot more active drilling to offset this natural process and boost production considerably at the same time. But shale majors are not doing this. They remain disciplined despite higher prices.

What all that suggests is that however high U.S. output goes this year, it is not very likely it would go high enough to put significant pressure on international prices, not least because of the record rate of U.S. oil exports.

These exports are putting downward pressure on benchmarks but, once again, it has its limits: Saudi Arabia remains a much bigger exporter of crude than the U.S., and so does his partner, and both have put caps on either production or exports. Saudi Arabia has also warned it could go a step further and deepen its production cuts to keep prices higher.

This is good news for shale drillers. It gives them the opportunity to spend less, pump more, and make more money by selling that higher output abroad thanks to robust and resilient demand in the former biggest market before the geopolitical conflicts – Europe – as well as the world’s biggest market for oil, Asia.