据彭博新闻社2023年7月13日报道，欧佩克预计明年全球石油市场将更加紧张，因为欧佩克预测全球明年石油需求增长量大于其他主要预测机构。
欧佩克7月13日在其对2024年市场的首次详细评估中表示，明年全球石油日消费量将增加220万桶达到1.043亿桶。这是为石油消费国提供建议的IEA预测增长率的两倍。
需求增长将超过来自欧佩克以外地区的预期供应增长，使世界对欧佩克原油的日需求量达到3020万桶，比6月份增加大约200万桶。这可能使欧佩克能够缓解今年为支撑价格而实施的生产限制。
沙特阿拉伯及其合作伙伴已经遏制了原油产量，以平衡市场，因为全球经济疲软，欧佩克+的个别出口国供应出乎意料地强劲。
7月12日，伦敦油价两个月来首次攀升至每桶80美元上方，原因是这些供应限制措施(包括沙特在7月和8月的额外单边减产)收紧了市场。尽管经济指标不稳定，但亚洲需求似乎也很强劲。
总部位于巴黎的IEA周四也发布了最新展望，预计明年全球石油日需求量将增加110万桶。欧佩克表示，燃油效率的提高和电动汽车的迅速普及将限制石油消费的增长。
报告称，欧佩克的13个成员国6月份的原油平均日产量为2820万桶，略高于5月份。
由23个国家组成的欧佩克+联盟将于下个月正式举行监督会议，但具体日期尚未确定。该联盟将于7月26日举行全体石油部长会议。
李峻 译自 彭博新闻社
原文如下：
OPEC Sees Even Tighter Oil Market in 2024 as Demand Climbs
OPEC predicted an even tighter global oil market next year, as the group anticipates a much bigger demand increase than other major forecasters.
World oil consumption will climb by 2.2 million barrels a day next year to reach 104.3 million a day, the organization said on Thursday in its first detailed assessment of 2024. That’s the double the growth rate projected by the International Energy Agency, which advises consuming nations.
The demand increase would outstrip the projected boost in supply from outside the cartel, pushing the world’s daily appetite for OPEC’s crude to 30.2 million barrels — or roughly 2 million barrels more than it pumped last month. That could allow the group to ease production constraints it’s making this year to shore up prices.
Saudi Arabia and its partners have curbed output to balance markets amid a faltering global economy and unexpectedly robust supplies from exporters including two heavyweights of OPEC+.
Oil prices climbed above $80 a barrel in London on Wednesday for the first time in two months as those supply curbs, which include extra unilateral cuts by the Saudis in July and August, tighten markets. Demand in Aisa also appears robust despite shaky economic indicators.
The Paris-based IEA, which also released its latest outlook on Thursday, sees demand growing by 1.1 million barrels a day next year. The expansion in oil consumption will be limited by improving fuel efficiency and the burgeoning popularity of electric vehicles, the agency said.
The 13 members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries pumped an average of 28.2 million barrels a day in June, fractionally more than the previous month, according to the report.
The 23-nation OPEC+ alliance is formally due to hold a monitoring meeting next month, though no date has yet been set. The coalition is scheduled to have a full ministerial meeting on Nov. 26.
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