据6月6日Trend报道称，标普全球商品洞察公司副总裁兼石油市场中下游咨询主管Spencer Welch表示，欧佩克+削减石油产量的最新决定将使石油更加昂贵。
欧佩克+已决定将《合作宣言》中欧佩克和非欧佩克成员国的原油总产量水平调整为4046万桶/天，时间为2024年1月1日至2024年12月31日。
Spencer Welch表示，“欧佩克+显然担心全球经济疲软，石油需求疲软，并担心油价在70美元/桶左右。大多数宣布（额外减产）要到2024年1月1日才会落地，2023年唯一的额外减产是沙特阿拉伯宣布将在2023年7月单方面额外减产100万桶/天。目前尚不清楚这一决定是否会进一步延长甚至增加，可能取决于到2013年第三季度油价和石油需求的变化”。
Spencer Welch指出，自2020年以来，欧佩克+在保持石油稳定方面的举措非常有效，这进一步强化了其打算努力将油价保持在80至90美元/桶的意图，它们不希望油价进一步下跌。
Spencer Welch补充道，“通过支撑价格，这将有助于石油生产商，但对石油买家来说更加昂贵。2024年全年，预测石油价格都在100美元/桶以上，所以现在80至90美元/桶的价格实际上还不错。油价的稳定使未来投资者们更容易继续投资石油生产，确保有足够的石油供应来满足需求，并帮助石油生产国尽可能地将其石油自然资源货币化”。
欧佩克+削减石油产量的最新决定对全球能源格局具有重大影响。欧佩克和其他主要产油国组成的欧佩克+选择减少石油产量，以应对各种市场因素影响。这一决定旨在稳定油价，重新平衡全球石油市场的供需动态。通过抑制产量，欧佩克+寻求解决潜在的供应过剩问题，缓解价格下行压力。此举突显出该集团致力于积极管理石油市场，并在不断变化的经济条件下保持稳定的承诺。此外，它强调了国际合作与协调的重要性，以应对石油供需波动带来的挑战。这一决定的影响将波及各个部门，影响能源价格、投资以及生产国和消费国的经济。
特别是，阿塞拜疆预计将在2024年全年将其原油产量调整至55.1万桶/天。此前，欧佩克预测阿塞拜疆2023年的原油供应量将增加3.7万桶/天，达到平均70万桶/天。
王佳晶 摘译自 Trend 网站
原文如下：
OPEC+ decision to make oil more expensive for buyers – Spencer Welch
The latest OPEC+ decision to cut oil output will make oil more expensive for importers, Spencer Welch, Vice-President, Head of Oil-Markets Midstream & Downstream Consulting at S&P Global Commodity Insights, told Trend.
OPEC+ has decided to adjust the level of overall crude oil production for OPEC and non-OPEC Participating Countries in the Declaration of Cooperation to 40.46 mb/d, starting 1 January 2024 until 31 December 2024.
“OPEC+ are clearly worried about the global economy being weak, and oil demand being weak, and are concerned about oil price being around $70/bbl. Most of the announcement (extra cuts) do not occur until 1 Jan 2024, the only extra cut in 2023 is Saudi Arabia announcing they would unilaterally cut supply by an extra 1 million b/d in July 2023. It is not known if this might extend further or even increase, it will likely depend on what happens to oil price/oil demand through 3Q23,” he said.
Welch noted that OPEC+ have been very effective at maintaining oil stability since 2020, this is further reinforcement that they intend to try to keep oil prices $80-90/bbl, they don’t want the price to slip further.
“By supporting price, it will help oil producers, but make oil more expensive for oil buyers. But oil was >$100/bbl for all of 2010-14, so $80-90/bbl price now is actually not too bad. Stability of oil price makes it easier to continue investing in oil production for the future, making sure there is sufficient oil supply to meet demand, and helping the oil producing countries to monetize their oil natural resources while they can,” he added.
The latest OPEC+ decision to cut oil production has significant implications for the global energy landscape. OPEC+, a coalition of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other major oil-producing nations, has chosen to reduce oil output in response to various market factors. This decision aims to stabilize oil prices and rebalance the supply-demand dynamics in the global oil market. By curbing production, OPEC+ seeks to address the potential oversupply and mitigate the downward pressure on prices. This move underscores the group's commitment to actively manage oil markets and maintain stability amidst evolving economic conditions. Additionally, it underscores the importance of international cooperation and coordination to tackle the challenges posed by fluctuations in oil supply and demand. The impact of this decision will reverberate across various sectors, influencing energy prices, investments, and the economies of both producing and consuming nations.
In particular, Azerbaijan is expected to adjust its crude production to 551,000 barrels per day throughout 2024. Earlier, OPEC predicted Azerbaijan's liquids supply for 2023 to rise by 37,000 b/d to average 0.7 mb/d.
免责声明：本网转载自其它媒体的文章及图片，目的在于弘扬石化精神，传递更多石化信息，宣传国家石化产业政策，展示国家石化产业形象，参与国际石化产业舆论竞争，提高国际石化产业话语权，并不代表本网赞同其观点和对其真实性负责，在此我们谨向原作者和原媒体致以崇高敬意。如果您认为本站文章及图片侵犯了您的版权，请与我们联系，我们将第一时间删除。
