欧洲能源问题持续：水电和核电产量下降

欧洲的水电和核电产量正在下降，导致欧洲面临更多的能源问题

由于风能和太阳能发电产量的增加，可再生能源正在努力填补这一缺口

欧盟可能需要增加从美国进口液化天然气以满足能源需求

据油价网2023年4月13日报道，去年，由于产能大国天然气流量枯竭，欧洲大部分国家加倍投入可再生能源，欧洲处于能源崩溃的边缘。

在某种程度上，可再生能源的押注得到了回报。欧洲的太阳能和风能发电量在2022年创下新纪录。事实上，历史上第一次，风能和太阳能加在一起的发电量超过了天然气发电厂。

只有一个问题。水电和核电产量的下降抵消了这一创纪录产量的意义。

去年欧洲干旱严重。干旱威胁着德国的莱茵河和意大利的波河等主要贸易航路。干旱还导致了水力发电量的严重下降。例如，在西班牙，由于干旱，水电产量下降了近一半。这一切在今年可能也会重演。

与此同时，欧洲的核电的发展也不尽如人意。法国突然发现，多年来在维护方面的投资不足将产生严重后果：紧急关闭核电站进行维修和维护。

这些问题使法国电力公司每年损失190亿美元，一半的核电站不得不关闭进行维护。大多数人将此归咎于疫情，但马克·尼尔森等核专家认为，问题的根源远在过去，当时法国决定押在可再生能源上而不是核能上。

尽管存在这些问题，2022年10月，《光伏杂志》还是刊登了一篇令人振奋的文章，讲述风能和太阳能如何弥补水力发电厂和核电站减少的发电量。文章称，在3月至9月期间，风能和太阳能发电量占欧洲发电量的24%，而与此同时，水力发电量下降了21%，核能发电量下降了19%。

这可能是2022年的情况，但今年的情况有所不同。路透社的加文·马奎尔在最近的一篇专栏文章中报道称，风能和太阳能似乎仍在以创纪录的速度发电，但水电和核电产量的下降如此严重，远远抵消了这些创纪录的产量。

马奎尔指出，欧洲的风能和太阳能发电能力去年增长了9%，达到57.29吉瓦，创历史新高。然而，与此同时，水电和核电的麻烦拖累了欧洲总发电量的下降，而且仍在继续。

欧洲去年第一季度的发电量为1213太瓦时，比今年第一季度的发电量低6.4%。这是气候变化倡导者Ember的说法。马奎尔认为，这本身并不一定令人担忧。去年这个时候，欧洲正在摆脱大流行封锁，需求飙升。

这位路透社专栏作家指出，问题可能出现在今年晚些时候，因为整个欧洲大陆的商业活动在去年能源危机之后开始反弹。 而且，产能大国去年供应的大部分天然气已经不再是一种选择。

法国核能是希望的主要来源，但核电产量恢复还需要一段时间。目前，法国核电站的发电量比2020年和2021年的平均发电量低17.5%。这比去年的23%有所下降，所以有一些进展，这是一个好迹象。

水力发电比较棘手，因为水力发电依赖于天气，尽管依赖程度比风能和太阳能要小。由于欧洲今年冬天的降雪比往年少很多，去年的干旱在今年的重演并非不可能。事实上，这是一种明显的可能性。

李峻 编译自 油价网

原文如下：

Europe’s Energy Troubles Continue: Hydro And Nuclear Output Declining

·     Europe's hydro and nuclear output is declining, leading to mopre energy troubles.

·     Renewables are struggling to fill the gap as wind and solar output increase.

·     The EU may require increased LNG imports from the US to meet energy demands.

Last year, Europe was on the brink of an energy breakdown as the largger producer's gas flows dried up and most of Europe doubled down on renewable energy.

The renewable energy bet paid off, in a way. Solar and wind electricity generation in Europe hit a record in 2022. In fact, for the first time in history, wind and solar together produced more electricity than natural gas-fired power plants.

There was just one problem with that. Lower hydro and nuclear output more than wiped out the significance of that record output.

Droughts were severe in Europe last year. They threatened major trade routes such as the Rhein in Germany and the Po in Italy. And they also caused severe declines in hydropower electricity output. For example, in Spain, hydropower output dropped by almost half because of the droughts. All this might repeat this year as well.

Meanwhile, nuclear wasn’t doing so swell, either. France suddenly found that years of underinvestment in maintenance would have consequences: emergency reactor shutdowns for repairs and maintenance.

The problems cost EDF a massive annual loss of $19 billion as half of its reactors had to be shut down for maintenance. Most blamed the pandemic, but nuclear experts such as Mark Nelson saw the roots of the problem much further into the past when France decided to bet on renewables over nuclear.

Despite all these issues, in October, PV Magazine wrote a cheerful article about how wind and solar had compensated for the reduced output from hydro and nuclear power plants. Wind and solar, the article said, accounted for 24 percent of Europe’s electricity generation between March and September, while at the same time, hydro output fell by 21 percent and nuclear fell by 19 percent.

That might have been the case in 2022, but this year things are different. Wind and solar are still producing electricity at a record rate, it appears, but declines in hydropower and nuclear output are so severe they are more than offsetting those record output rates, Reuters’ Gavin Maguire reported in a recent column.

Maguire noted that Europe managed to boost its wind and solar power capacity by 9 percent last year to 57.29 GW, which was a record high. At the same time, however, the troubles of hydro and nuclear dragged total electricity generation down and are still doing it.

Over the first quarter, European power generation stood at 1,213 terrawatt-hours, which was 6.4 percent lower than output for the first quarter of 2023. That’s according to climate change advocacy Ember. According to Maguire, this is not necessarily alarming in itself. This time last year, Europe was coming out of pandemic lockdowns, and demand was soaring.

Where things could become problematic is later in the year as business activity across the continent begins to rebound after the energy crunch of last year, the Reuters columnist noted. And most of the largger producer gas that was available last year is no longer an option.

French nuclear is a major source of hope, but it will be a while yet before output recovers. At the moment, French nuclear power plants are producing 17.5 percent less than the average output rate for 2020 and 2021. That’s down from 23 percent for last year, so there is some progress, and that’s a good sign.

Hydro is trickier because, although to a lesser extent than wind and solar, hydro is weather-dependent. With Europe’s mild winter that saw a lot less snow than usual, a repeat of last year’s drought is not out of the question. In fact, it is a distinct possibility.