据油气新闻网4月12日报道，据美国能源信息署(EIA)预测，今明两年，非欧佩克国家在石油产量增长中所占比例将更高，这与过去两年的情况截然相反。
在沙特阿拉伯和其他中东生产国本月披露计划从下个月开始减产约116万桶/天后，美国、巴西、加拿大和圭亚那的涨幅将超过欧佩克。
EIA在其《短期能源展望》中表示，预计2023年非欧佩克液体燃料总产量将增加190万桶/天，2024年将增加100万桶/天。EIA预测，欧佩克的产量协议到期后，2023年该组织的产量将下降50万桶/天，然后在2024年增加100万桶/天。
该机构表示，未来两年非欧佩克产油国预测的增产中，约有一半将来自美国。美国原油产量今年将增长5.5%，至1254万桶/天，2024年将再增长1.7%，至1275万桶/天。
汽油价格
EIA表示，预计今年夏天美国汽油零售均价约为每加仑3.50美元，6月份达到每加仑3.60至3.70美元的峰值。一年前，随着油价飙升和库存水平下降，油价飙升至每加仑5美元。
EIA预测，今年美国家庭平均汽油支出预计将在2140至2730美元之间，低于2022年的2780美元。
据美国交通部估计，今年前两个月，美国汽车出行量同比增长3.8%。
随着炼油厂进行大修，汽油库存一直在下降，这引发了人们对今年夏天油价上涨的担忧。然而，EIA估计炼油厂的汽油产量增长速度将快于美国的消费量，从而增加库存并降低价格。
据美国汽车协会称，本周美国汽油零售均价为每加仑3.608美元，低于一年前的4.11美元。
今年布伦特原油现货均价将为每桶85美元，而美国西得克萨斯中质原油预计均价为每桶79.24美元。这两项预测都比EIA在3月份对欧佩克限产的预测高出约2美元。
EIA警告称，原油价格上涨可能损害炼油利润率，并促使炼油商降低产量。EIA预计，今年美国炼油厂的平均利用率将从去年的逾91%降至90%。
预计石油需求将保持相对稳定。EIA表示，2023年液体燃料消费量将增加140万桶/天，2024年将增加180万桶/天。该机构预计，未来一年全球石油市场将相对平衡。
EIA补充称，2023年美国石油和其他液体燃料消费量将上升0.5%至2040万桶/天，2024年将上升1.6%至2070万桶/天。
郝芬 译自 油气新闻网
原文如下：
OPEC's share of oil production growth to shrink this year:EIA
Non-Opec countries will account for a higher percentage of oil production gains this year and next, a reversal of the last two years, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicted.
Gains by the US, Brazil, Canada and Guyana will overshadow Opec after Saudi Arabia and other Middle East producers this month disclosed plans to cut output by around 1.16 million barrels per day beginning next month.
Total non-Opec liquid fuels production is expected to grow by 1.9 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2023 and by 1 million bpd in 2024, the EIA said in its Short Term Energy Outlook. Opec output will fall by 500,000 bpd in 2023, then rise by 1 million bpd in 2024, after the group's output agreement expires, EIA forecast.
about half of the forecast gain by non-Opec producers in the next two years will come from the US, the agency said. US crude production set to rise 5.5 per cent to 12.54 million bpd this year and another 1.7 per cent, to 12.75 million bpd, in 2024.
GASOLINE PRICES
US retail gasoline prices are expected to average around $3.50 per gallon this summer, peaking between $3.60 per gallon and $3.70 per gallon in June, the EIA said. A year ago, prices jumped to $5 a gallon as oil soared and storage levels shrank.
The average US household is expected to spend between $2,140 and $2,730 on gasoline this year, down from $2,780 in 2022, the EIA forecast.
US motor travel rose 3.8 per cent for the first two months of this year compared with a year ago, the US Department of Transportation estimated.
Gasoline stockpiles have been falling as refineries underwent overhauls, raising fears of higher prices this summer. However, the EIA estimated refiners' gasoline output will rise faster than US consumption, raising stocks and lowering prices.
The US average retail price for a gallon of gasoline was $3.608 this week, down from $4.11 a year-earlier, motorist group AAA said.
Brent crude oil spot price will average $85 per barrel this year, while West Texas Intermediate US crude is expected to average $79.24. Both estimates were about $2 higher than EIA's March forecast on Opec's output curbs.
The higher crude oil prices could hurt refining margins and encourage refiners to lower throughput, EIA warned, forecasting average US refinery utilisation of 90 per cent this year down from more than 91 per cent last year.
Oil demand is expected to remain relatively stable. Liquid fuels consumption will rise by 1.4 million bpd in 2023 and by 1.8 million bpd in 2024, EIA said. It expects global oil markets to be in relative balance over the coming year.
US petroleum and other liquid fuels consumption would tick up 0.5 per cent to 20.4 million bpd in 2023 and rise 1.6 per cent to 20.7 million bpd in 2024, EIA added.
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