花旗银行：欧洲石油巨头可能成为美国石油巨头的收购目标

美国花旗银行分析师称：欧洲石油巨头的股价比美国同行的股价有很大折扣

欧盟石油巨头的价值可能成为美国超级石油巨头的重要价值基准定位

欧洲竞争监管机构不太可能发起严苛监管，甚至根本不可能

据油价网2023年1月26日报道，由于买家变得更加挑剔，去年美国油气行业的并购活动跌至17年来的最低水平。但据能源数据分析公司Enverus本周早些时候报道，除了挑剔，美国油气行业还愿意花钱。现在，美国花旗银行分析师们暗示，美国油气行业在收购方面可能会更加慷慨。花旗银行的分析师们在本周的一份报告中表示，欧洲超级石油巨头英国石油公司和壳牌公司可能成为美国同行埃克森美孚公司和雪佛龙公司的收购目标。他们认为，欧洲股票受到了人们对ESG投资和能源转型态度的影响，这使它们成为美国超级石油巨头的潜在价值定位。

花旗银行分析师Alastair Syme在报告中表示：“欧洲石油公司的价值确认仍然受到投资者和政治逆风的制约。”“欧洲油气行业真正需要的是利用这种价值本身进行套利。”

Syme还表示：“我们认为，两家美国石油巨头（埃克森美孚公司和雪佛龙公司）中的任何一家石油巨头，都可能试图收购其主要的欧洲竞争对手之一(英国石油公司、壳牌公司或道达尔能源公司)。”

MarketWatch援引同一份报告称，花旗银行称，这两家欧洲超级石油巨头目前的股价比埃克森美孚公司和雪佛龙公司的股价低40%以上。不过，分析师们指出，这种折价主要来自美国股市相对于欧洲股市的普遍溢价。

然而，部分折价来自于欧洲的政治现实，投资者面临着巨大的压力，要求他们像躲避瘟疫一样避开油气行业，转而关注低碳能源机会。去年以来的油价上涨，以及对当前和未来石油需求的乐观预测，都没有改变这种情绪。

花旗银行分析师团队写道：“美国国际石油公司的回报将是可观的，通过以较低股权成本融资以及我们估计的净现值在目标市值15%～30%所形成的成本协同效应，价值将得到提升。”

如果埃克森美孚公司和雪佛龙公司开始感觉未来面对的是非有机增长，这将是一个相当有利可图的机会。在经历了强劲的一年和即将到来的又一强劲增长年之后，他们很可能也会这样做，因为石油市场供需状况仍然处于不稳定的平衡状态，短缺的危险总是潜伏在角落后面。

因此，美国的超级石油巨头很可能有足够的钱来收购英国石油公司或壳牌公司，而根据花旗银行的说法，欧洲竞争监管机构不太可能进行严苛监管阻止此类收购，甚至根本不会这样做。事实上，花旗银行的分析师们表示，欧洲政界可能乐于看到欧洲超级石油巨头消失。

“欧洲政界人士无疑会大吵大嚷，但鉴于他们已经提出了一种‘反石油’的说法，他们似乎不太可能直接干预。竞争监管机构不太可能设置障碍，至少不足以消除价值增长的潜力。”花旗银行如是表示。  

当然，正如MarketWatch所指出的那样，如果这种假设真的成为现实，一个欧洲石油巨头成为美国企业的一部分，在可再生能源上的支出就将出现下降——可能是相当大的下降——这是欧盟反石油政治游说团体不愿意看到的。  

另一方面，这将发生在远离欧洲海岸的地方，所以他们可能会决定睁一只眼闭一只眼，就像他们把所有美国木材以生物质能的名义运往欧洲，并作为可再生能源燃烧一样。

唯一真正的问题是，当埃克森美孚公司和雪佛龙公司可以轻松自如回购自己的股票，并随着油价攀升而提高股息时，它们是否有心情进行如此大规模的收购。

李峻 编译自 油价网

原文如下：

Citi: European Oil Majors Could Become Acquisition Targets

·     Citi analysts: European oil majors are trading at a major discount to their U.S. peers.

·     EU oil majors could become a serious value proposition for the U.S. supermajors.

·     European competition authorities are unlikely to put up much of a fight, if at all.

Merger and acquisition activity in the United States oil and gas industry last year slumped to the lowest in 17 years as buyers became pickier. But besides being picky, they were also willing to spend, Enverus reported earlier this week. Now, Citi analysts are suggesting they may get even more generous with acquisitions. BP and Shell, the European supermajors, could become acquisition targets for their American peers Exxon and Chevron, the bank’s analysts said in a note this week, arguing that the Europeans’ stocks have been affected by attitudes towards ESG investing and the energy transition, turning them into a potential value proposition for the American supermajors.

“The CoE of European oils remains handcuffed by investor and political headwinds,” Citi analyst Alastair Syme said in the note, as quoted by Proactive Investors. “What is really needed is for the industry to arbitrage this value itself.”

“We look at the strategic imperative, financial accretion and political headwinds of either of the two US IOCs (Exxon or Chevron) potentially looking to try and acquire one of their key European competitors (BP, Shell or TotalEnergies),” Syme also said.

According to the bank, the two European supermajors are currently trading at a discount of more than 40 percent to Exxon and Chevron, MarketWatch reported, citing the same note. The analysts, however, noted that most of this discount comes from a general premium that U.S. stocks enjoy over European ones.

Yet some of the discount comes from the political realities of Europe, where pressure is strong on investors to shun the oil and gas sector like the plague and focus instead on low-carbon energy opportunities. The oil price rally from last year and the upbeat forecasts for current and future oil demand have done nothing to change that sentiment.

“The prize for the U.S. IOCs would look considerable, with value uplift coming through the ability to fund at a lower [cost of equity] as well as cost-synergies that we estimate in [net present value] terms in the region of 15-30% of target market-cap,” the Citi analyst team wrote.

This would be quite a lucrative opportunity if Exxon and Chevron start to feel like growing inorganically. They might well do that, too, after a strong year and another on the way as the oil market supply and demand situation remains in precarious balance, with the danger of a shortage always lurking behind the corner.

So, the American supermajors may well have the money to snatch BP or Shell, and according to Citi, the European competition authorities are unlikely to put up much of a fight, if at all. In fact, the bank’s analysts suggested the European political circles may be glad to see the supermajors gone.

“European politicians would undoubtedly rattle their sabres, but given they have already set out an anti-oil narrative it seems unlikely they would intervene directly. Competition authorities are unlikely to put up blockers, at least not enough to remove the value-accretion potential,” Citi said.

Of course, as MarketWatch points out, if the hypothetical scenario does materialize and a European supermajor becomes part of an American one, spending on renewables will decline—probably sizeably—and that’s hardly something the anti-oil political lobby in the EU would like to see.

On the other hand, that would be happening far from European shores, so they might decide to look the other way, pretty much the way they did with all that American wood being shipped to Europe under the label biomass and burned as a renewable source of energy.

The only real question then is whether either Exxon or Chevron are in the mood to make such a huge buy when they can sit and repurchase their own stock and boost dividends as they watch oil prices climb higher.