欧佩克周三（10月12日)大幅下调了其对2022年和2023年全球石油需求增长的预期，理由是经济逆风影响
就在一周前，欧佩克+宣布将其原油日产量目标大幅削减200万桶
欧佩克认为，全球经济已进入一个重大不确定性和宏观经济状况恶化的时期
据油价网10月12日报道，石油输出国组织(欧佩克)周三大幅下调了其对2022年和2023年的全球石油需求增长预期，一周前欧佩克+宣布将其原油总产量目标每天整体下调200万桶。
在今天发布的备受关注的《月度石油市场报告》(MOMR)中，欧佩克将其对2022年全球石油日需求增长的估计下调了46万桶，原因是发达经济体的经济阻力和各地的通胀压力。欧佩克目前预计，今年全球石油日需求将增加260万桶，达到日均9970万桶。
同样，欧佩克还将2023年的全球石油日需求增长预期下调了36万桶，预计明年的全球石油日需求增长为230万桶。欧佩克表示，鉴于全球经济前景的不确定性和疫情相关的因素，全球石油需求增长将“受到阻力”。
在今年和明年全球石油需求增长大幅下调之前，欧佩克+联盟上周宣布了自2020年以来最大的集体原油产量目标大幅下调。
尽管欧佩克+成员国坚称，减产是基于技术市场评估，目的是“稳定市场”，但许多分析人士认为，此举是一种政治行为。
欧佩克以更强劲的经济逆风为理由，下调了全球石油需求增长预测。
欧佩克表示：“全球经济增长已进入一个充满重大不确定性和宏观经济状况恶化的时期，同时面临日益严峻的挑战，包括高通胀水平、主要央行收紧货币政策、利率上升和持续的供应链问题。”
欧佩克表示：“展望未来，尽管供暖石油需求通常会出现季节性增长，但不确定性水平升高、经济增长放缓以及可能再次出现的疫情带来的挑战预计将影响2022年和2023年的全球石油需求。”欧佩克还指出，欧佩克+上周决定将其目标原油日产量削减200万桶，这是一种先发制人的积极举措，“旨在持续不懈地为市场提供可持续的稳定”。
李峻 编译自 油价网
原文如下：
OPEC Slashes Global Oil Demand Forecast
· OPEC slashed its global oil demand growth estimates on Wednesday for both 2022 and 2023, citing economic headwinds .
· The decision comes just a week after OPEC+ announced a 2 million barrels per day cut to its production target.
· OPEC believes the global economy has entered into a period of significant uncertainty and deteriorating macroeconomic conditions.
OPEC slashed on Wednesday its global oil demand growth estimates for both 2022 and 2023, a week after announcing a 2-million-bpd headline cut to its collective oil production target.
In its closely-watched Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) out today, OPEC revised down its estimate of global oil demand growth for 2022 by 460,000 barrels per day (bpd), economic headwinds in developed economies, and inflationary pressures everywhere. OPEC now sees world oil demand growing by 2.6 million bpd this year to average 99.7 million bpd.
Similarly, the cartel also slashed its oil demand growth forecast for 2023, by 360,000 bpd, expecting growth at 2.3 million bpd next year. Demand growth would be “subject to headwinds given the uncertainty that surrounds the global economic outlook and factors related to the pandemic,” OPEC said.
The significant downward revisions to oil demand growth this year and next come after the OPEC+ group announced last week the biggest cut to its collective target since 2020.
Despite insistence from all of OPEC+ that the production cut was based on technical market assessments and is aimed at “stability,” many analysts, saw the move as a political one.
In today’s report, OPEC cited stronger economic headwinds to justify the downward revision to its global oil demand growth forecasts.
“Global economic growth has entered into a period of significant uncertainty and deteriorating macroeconomic conditions, amid intensifying challenges including high inflation levels, tightening monetary policies by major central banks, rising interest rates and persisting supply chain issues,” OPEC said.
“Looking ahead, and despite the usual seasonal hike in oil demand for heating, the challenges presented by the heightened levels of uncertainty, the slowing economic growth and a possible resurgence of COVID are expected to impact oil demand in 2022 and 2023,” the cartel said. OPEC also noted that last week’s decision of OPEC+ to cut 2 million bpd off its target production level was a pre-emptive and pro-active move “in an ongoing and relentless effort to provide a sustainable stability to the market.”
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