据EIA 9月16日消息称，EIA预测美国东海岸每月汽油库存将从7月份的多年低点普遍增长，汽油库存将在2022年底前增加，并在2023年全年保持高于7月份的低点。
2018年至2021年，美国东海岸的石油生产能力每天下降约40万桶。虽然从美国海湾海岸到东海岸的石油产品运输量高于平均水平，但这些运输量的进一步增加受到运输限制的限制。
EIA预测东美国海岸的汽油库存已经开始从2022年7月的低点开始增长，并且2022年剩余时间内，库存将保持在7月低点以上。从2020年7月到8月，东海岸汽油库存增加了110万桶，达到5180万桶。我们预测，2023年1月，东海岸汽油库存将增至6380万桶。
未来几个月，EIA预测库存的增加主要是由于典型的季节性因素。美国秋季和冬季的汽油消耗量比夏季少，因为夏季司机往往出行更多。此外，该国许多地区使用的汽油的石油成分RBOB的期货价格通常在夏季月份交割高于冬季月份交割。RBOB期货价格的这种季节性结构鼓励市场参与者在夏季需求旺盛的月份之前，在秋季和冬季建立库存。
虽然EIA预测2022年第四季度的库存将增长，这是本季度的典型情况，但EIA预测建筑量将高于平均水平，部分原因是EIA预计需求将低于平均水平。
东海岸汽油库存在2023年1月达到6400万桶的峰值后，到2023年6月前可能保持在6000万桶左右。EIA预测，在2023的7月和8月的需求高峰季节，库存将降至5500万桶左右，预计到2023年底，库存将恢复到6000万桶以上。
梁金燕 摘译自 EIA
原文如下：
EIA forecasts East Coast gasoline inventories will build by the end of 2022
In our September 2022 Short-Term Energy Outlook, we forecast that monthly East Coast gasoline inventories will generally increase from July’s multiyear lows. We forecast gasoline inventories will build by the end of 2022 and remain higher than July's low throughout 2023.
Between 2018 and 2021, the capacity to produce petroleum on the East Coast declined by about 400,000 barrels per day. Although shipments of petroleum products from the U.S. Gulf Coast to the East Coast have been higher than average, further increases in these shipments are limited by transportation constraints.
We estimate that East Coast gasoline inventories have already begun to increase from their July 2022 lows, and we forecast that they will remain above July lows for the rest of 2022. We estimate East Coast gasoline inventories increased by 1.1 million barrels to 51.8 million barrels from July to August 2022. We forecast that East Coast gasoline inventories will increase to 63.8 million barrels for January 2023.
Much of the increase in our forecast inventory over the next few months is due to typical seasonal factors. Less gasoline is consumed in the United States in the fall and winter than in the summer, when drivers tend to travel more. In addition, futures prices for RBOB, the petroleum component of gasoline used in many parts of the country, are generally higher for summer-month delivery than for winter-month delivery. This seasonal structure in RBOB futures prices encourages market participants to build inventory in the fall and winter, before the high-demand summer months.
Although our forecast that inventory will grow in the fourth quarter of 2022 is typical of the season, we forecast the build to be above average, in part, because we expect less demand than on average.
East Coast gasoline inventories will likely remain around 60 million barrels until June 2023 after reaching a peak of 64 million barrels in January 2023. We forecast inventories will decrease to around 55 million barrels during the peak driving demand season in July and August 2023. We expect inventories to return to more than 60 million barrels by the end of 2023.
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