• 高企的燃料价格开始对石油消费构成压力。
• 国际能源署（IEA）大幅下调今年全球石油需求预测，将日需求量增长预测下调10万桶。
• IEA表示：“油价上涨和经济环境恶化已开始对石油需求造成影响。”
据美国油价网7月13日报道，国际能源署（IEA）周三表示，由于高油价打压消费，预计今年全球石油日需求将增加170万桶，把其对今年全球石油日需求增长预期下调10万桶。
IEA在今日发布的备受关注的《石油市场报告》（OMR）中表示：“油价上涨和经济环境恶化已开始对全球石油需求造成影响，但强劲的发电需求和亚洲经济复苏正在部分抵消这一影响。”
IEA在7月份的预测中表示，今年全球石油日总需求预计将平均达到9920万桶，同比日增170万桶。
今年6月，IEA曾预计，今年全球石油日需求将以180万桶的速度增长。一个月前，IEA曾预计2023年全球石油日需求将进一步增加220万桶，至创纪录的1.016亿桶。IEA今天发布的报告将明年全球石油日需求增长预期下调10万桶，降至210万桶。
IEA表示，2023年全球石油需求增长将受到发展中经济体强劲增长趋势的推动。然而，IEA警告称：“石油市场的前景很少像现在这样不确定。”
IEA表示：“目前，发达经济体弱于预期的石油需求增长，以及产能大国供应的弹性，已导致总体平衡出现松动。”
IEA表示，燃料价格高企已开始削弱经合组织的石油消费，但这在很大程度上被以亚洲大国为首的新兴和发展中经济体强于预期的需求反弹所抵消。
IEA指出，尽管自6月以来，由于对经济放缓的预期和对衰退的担忧，石油市场情绪显著恶化，但“由于原油和石油产品的季节性需求上升，而供应仍然紧张，原油价格溢价实际扩大了”。
“由于欧盟对石油禁运将于今年年底全面生效，石油市场可能再次吃紧。由于上游和下游现成的备用产能都处于低位，可能需要需求方采取措施降低消费和燃料成本，这对稳定构成了威胁，尤其是在新兴市场。”IEA如是表示。
李峻 编译自 美国油价网
原文如下：
IEA Slashes Oil Forecast As Demand Destruction Looms Over The Market
· High fuel prices is beginning to weigh on consumption.
· The IEA has slashed its demand forecast, revising down its estimates by 100,000 bpd.
· “Higher prices and a deteriorating economic environment have started to take their toll on oil demand,” the agency said.
Global oil demand is expected to rise by 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd) this year compared to 2022, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday, revising down by 100,000 bpd its demand growth estimate on the back of high prices weighing on consumption.
“Higher prices and a deteriorating economic environment have started to take their toll on oil demand, but strong power generation use and a recovery in Asia are providing a partial offset,” the agency said in its closely-watched Oil Market Report (OMR) published today.
Total global oil demand is expected to average 99.2 million bpd in 2022, up by 1.7 million bpd compared to 2021, the IEA said in its July forecast.
In June, the agency had expected annual growth of 1.8 million bpd in oil demand for 2022. A month ago, the IEA saw 2023 demand rising further by 2.2 million bpd to a record 101.6 million bpd. Today’s report downgrades the forecast by 100,000 bpd to an expected increase of 2.1 million bpd next year.
Demand growth is 2023 is set to be driven by a strong growth trend in developing economies, the agency said.
However, the IEA warned that “Rarely has the outlook for oil markets been more uncertain.”
“For now, weaker-than-expected oil demand growth in advanced economies and resilient supply has loosened headline balances,” according to the agency.
High fuel prices have already started to dent oil consumption in the OECD, but this was largely offset by a stronger-than-expected demand rebound in emerging and developing economies led by the biggest country in Aisa, the IEA said.
While oil market sentiment has materially deteriorated since June amid expectations of economic slowdown and fears of recession, “price premiums for physical barrels widened on rising seasonal demand for both crude and products while supply remains constrained,” the agency noted.
“As an EU embargo on oil is set to come into full force at the end of the year, the oil market may tighten once again. With readily available spare capacity running low in both the upstream and downstream, it may be up to demand side measures to bring down consumption and fuel costs that pose a threat to stability, most notably in emerging markets,” said the IEA.
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