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欧佩克认为全球石油需求增长将于2023年放缓

   2022-06-15 互联网综合消息620
核心提示:据油气新闻网6月14日报道,据欧佩克代表和业内消息人士称,由于原油和燃料价格飙升有助于推高通胀,并拖累

据油气新闻网6月14日报道,据欧佩克代表和业内消息人士称,由于原油和燃料价格飙升有助于推高通胀,并拖累全球经济,世界石油需求增长将在2023年放缓。

燃料使用量已从2020年疫情引发的衰退中反弹,即使价格创下历史新高,今年仍将超过2019年的水平。但高价格已经影响了2022年的增长预测,也加剧了2023年增长放缓的预期。

预计欧佩克将于7月发布2023年的首次需求预测。该组织以及总部位于巴黎的国际能源署的预测将受到密切关注,以寻找欧佩克供应政策将如何发展的方针。

一名欧佩克代表和另一位熟悉欧佩克想法的消息人士表示,他们预计2023年全球需求增长不超过200万桶/天,仅增长2%,而2022年预计增长336万桶/天。

这位代表在谈到明年的前景时表示,即使只有100万桶/天,那也仍然是增长,而不是峰值。

一位欧佩克消息人士表示,预计欧佩克将于7月12日在月度报告中公布2023年的首次需求预测。

IEA发言人表示,为西方政府提供能源政策建议的IEA将于周三在月度报告中给出其首次2023年需求预测。

欧佩克正在观察高油价将导致石油需求破坏的迹象。

另有两名欧佩克代表表示,需求下降可能会对未来几个月的石油使用造成影响,不过其中一名代表表示,美国目前还没有这种迹象,称其援引了近期的汽油需求数据。

一家不隶属于IEA或欧佩克的贸易公司的资深业内人士也表示,他预计2023年的需求增长将有所下降,并表示他的初步估计表明,需求将从2022年的260万桶/日增长率下降到200万桶/日或更少。

他称,每桶120美元的原油价格正在破坏需求。这已经发生了。

考虑到经济前景的变化和地缘政治的不确定性,石油需求预测者往往不得不做出相当大的修正。

欧佩克在2021年7月发布的首次预测中预测2022年的需求增长为328万桶/日,后来将其上调至400万桶/日以上,然后将其下调至336万桶/日。

郝芬 译自 油气新闻网

原文如下:

Opec sees global oil demand growth slowing in 2023

World oil demand growth will slow in 2023, Opec delegates and industry sources said, as surging crude and fuel prices help drive up inflation and act as a drag on the global economy.

Fuel use has rebounded from the 2020 pandemic-induced slump and is set to exceed 2019 levels this year even as prices hit record highs. But high prices have eaten into growth projections for 2022 and fed into expectations for slower growth in 2023.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is expected to publish its first forecast for 2023 demand in July. Its forecast, along with that of the Paris-based International Energy Agency, will be watched closely for pointers on how Opec supply policy might develop.

An Opec delegate and another source familiar with Opec thinking said they expected world demand growth of 2 million barrels per day (bpd) or less in 2023, a rise of just 2 per cent, compared with growth of 3.36 million bpd expected in 2022.

"Even if it is only 1 million bpd, that is still growth and not a peak," the delegate said of the outlook for next year.

Opec is expected to publish its first demand forecast for 2023 in its monthly report on July 12, an Opec source said.

The IEA, which advises Western governments on energy policy, will give its first 2023 demand forecast in a monthly report on Wednesday, an IEA spokesperson said.

Opec is watching for signs that high fuel prices will lead to oil demand destruction.

Two more Opec delegates said demand destruction is likely to take a toll on oil use in coming months, although one of them said there was little sign of it yet in the United States, citing recent gasoline demand data.

A senior industry source at a trading firm, not affiliated to the IEA or Opec, also said he expected lower demand growth in 2023, saying his initial estimates pointed to demand growing by 2 million bpd or less, down from 2.6 million bpd growth in 2022。

"Crude at $120 a barrel is causing demand destruction," he said. "It is already happening."

Oil demand forecasters often have to make sizeable revisions given changes in the economic outlook and geopolitical uncertainties.

Opec originally forecast demand growth in 2022 of 3.28 million bpd, in its first forecast published in July 2021, later raising it up to more than 4 million bpd before cutting it to 3.36 million bpd.



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