据油价网2021年7月29日报道，对新冠肺炎疫情在世界部分地区卷土重来以及基金抛售石油期货引发的石油需求担忧，逆转了最近的油价上涨势头。 欧佩克+达成一项关于未来产量的协议对此提供了帮助。
美国所有50个州的新冠肺炎感染病例数都在上升，一些欧洲国家的新病例也出现了跃升，尤其是英国和法国。 根据最新的报告，在英国，最新的一波爆发潮正在消退，但乐观情绪缺乏，因为目前还不清楚这股高潮消退的原因。
与此同时，沙特阿拉伯和阿拉伯联合酋长国就产量基准达成了协议，因此OPEC+正在推进向市场释放更多原油的计划，这给原油价格带来了压力。
上周，路透社的约翰?坎普在其每周专栏中报道，对冲基金和其他造市商以10年来最快的速度出售石油和燃料期货。 总销售量相当于1.72亿桶原油。 售出最多的合同是西德克萨斯中质原油，售出7400万桶，其次是布伦特原油，售出5100万桶。
路透社本周援引Stone X分析师凯文·所罗门的话报道说：“在欧佩克+主导的供应短缺和疫苗接种率低地区新冠病毒变种德尔塔的威胁之间，能源领域似乎存在一场斗争。”
所罗门还表示：“疫苗接种的缓慢普及将继续限制这些地区石油需求的一些上行空间，未来几个月需求将出现间歇性的复苏。”
确实，石油尚未走出困境。 法国兴业银行表示：“我们认为，就之前记录的价值而言，今年年底我们可能会回到‘正常’的一年，但整个石油市场仍远未恢复正常。 GDP增长增加了石油和产品需求，但航空燃油需求仍将是一个问题，尽管这一需求正显示出正常化的迹象。”
然而，值得注意的是，在布伦特原油和西德克萨斯中质原油价格暴跌后的第二天欧佩克+宣布了新的协议，尽管Covid-19病例数上升，但主要市场如美国和欧洲的部分地区需求恢复很快，这表明存在至少一些感知的需求弹性。
例如，在美国，航空旅行激增，加上供应限制和劳动力短缺，这导致了航空燃料短缺。
总而言之，目前的石油形势比一个月前更加复杂。 在疫苗接种不均衡、反对接种疫苗和新冠病毒感染的情况下，人们猜测是否会变得更加复杂。目前，国际石油市场的价格必须考虑到这些因素。
李峻 编译自 油价网
原文如下：
Oil Market Still Far From Being Back To ‘Normal’
Worry about oil demand sparked by the resurgence of Covid-19 in some parts of the world and a fund selloff in oil futures has reversed the recent price rally. OPEC+ reaching a deal about future production lent an assist.
New Covid-19 infections are on the rise across all 50 states, and there have been jumps in new cases in some European countries as well, notably the UK and France. In the UK, the latest wave is ebbing, according to the latest reports, but optimism is in short supply as it is still unclear why it is ebbing.
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates struck a deal about production baselines, so OPEC+ is moving ahead with its plans to release more oil to the market, pressuring prices.
Last week, Reuters’ John Kemp reported in his weekly column, hedge funds and other market makers sold oil and fuel futures at one of the fastest rates in ten years. The total sold was equivalent to 172 million barrels of crude. The most sold contract was West Texas Intermediate, at 74 million barrels, followed by Brent crude, at 51 million barrels.
But besides OPEC+ and new Covid-19 infections, there is also another reason worrying oil traders about the immediate prospects for prices.
Earlier this year, the government told state-owned oil majors to stop trading their crude oil import quotas with independents, commonly called teapots, and then, later, it cut the second 2021 batch of crude oil import quotas for teapots by 35 percent.
“There is seemingly a battle within the energy complex between the prevailing supply deficit engineered by OPEC+ and the threat of the COVID-19 Delta variant in regions with low vaccination rates,” Reuters quoted Stone X analyst Kevin Solomon as saying this week.
“The slow take-up of vaccinations will continue to limit some upside in oil demand in those regions, and there will be intermittent spells in the recovery in the coming months,” Solomon also said.
Indeed, oil has yet to come out of the woods. According to Societe Generale, “We think we could be back to a ‘normal’ year at the end of the year in terms of previously recorded values, but the entire oil market is still far from being back to normal. GDP growth has increased oil and product demand, but jet fuel demand will remain an issue although this is showing signs of normalisation.”
And yet it bears noting that although both Brent and WTI took a plunge the day after OPEC+ announced its new agreement, both recovered pretty quickly, suggesting that there exists at least some perception of some resilience in demand, despite the rising Covid-19 case count in key markets such as the United States and parts of Europe.
In the United States, for example, there has been a surge in air travel, which has caused a jet fuel shortage in combination with supply constraints and a labor shortage.
All in all, the oil picture right now is more mixed than it was a month ago. Whether it would become even more mixed is anyone’s guess amid uneven vaccinations, vaccine opposition, and new Covid-19 infections, without even counting factors, which by now must be factored into prices.
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