亚洲股市反弹 黄金和油价下跌

   2021-08-23 互联网讯

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核心提示:  据路透社8月9日报道,因黄金和石油的价格大幅下挫,只是短暂地打击了市场的人气,亚洲股市周一早盘下跌

  据路透社8月9日报道,因黄金和石油的价格大幅下挫,只是短暂地打击了市场的人气,亚洲股市周一早盘下跌,随后反弹,而在乐观的美国就业报告提振债券收益率后,美元兑欧元汇率达到四个月高点。

  市场早盘因金价突然跳水而受到震动,金价跌破每盎司1750美元,引发止损抛售,跌至每盎司1684美元。最后一次跌幅伟1.3%,至1740美元。

  布伦特原油价格也下跌了2%,原因是人们担心Delta新冠肺炎变异毒株的传播会抑制旅游需求。东京和新加坡的假期交易清淡,也加剧了波动性。不过,在最初的下跌之后,摩根士丹利资本国际(MSCI)除日本以外亚太地区最广泛的股指回升至0.1%。

  美国参议院更接近于通过一项1万亿美元的基础设施计划,尽管该计划仍需在众议院通过。

  投资者仍在评估周五强劲的美国非农就业报告是否会令美国联邦储备理事会(FED)更加倾向于退出刺激计划。

  NAB资深外汇策略师Rodrigo Catril表示:"对于将在9 - 12月期间宣布缩减购债规模,以及在11月至明年1月期间实际缩减购债规模方面,各方意见并没有太多分歧。"不过,他表示,缩减购债规模的步伐仍悬而未决,这将决定实际加息的时间。美联储目前每月购买1200亿美元资产,因此200亿美元的缩减购债计划将在六个月后结束,而100亿美元的缩减购债计划则需要一年时间。

  Delta病毒的蔓延可能为美国提供了缩减购债规模的理由,美国的新冠肺炎病例已回到去年冬天激增时的水平,当时有超过6.6万人住院治疗。

  预计将于本周公布的7月CPI数据也将证实通胀已见顶,此外,二手车价格在大幅上涨后终于回落。

  本周将有四位美联储官员发表讲话,这无疑将为寻找缩减购债时机的市场提供足够的线索。与此同时,美国强劲的财报季基本上支撑了股市。美国银行分析师指出,标准普尔500指数成份股公司第二季度收益较上年同期增长15%,其中90%的公司已经公布了业绩。

  他们在一份报告中写道:“然而,在业绩公布后的第二天,业绩优于预期的公司对其股价反应平淡,业绩差于预期的公司将受到冲击。虽然乐观预期强于平均水平,但对两年增长的普遍预期表明,在宏观担忧的背景下,增长将放缓。”

  金融类股周五走强,因收益率曲线趋陡预计将有利于银行盈利,同时也会拖累估值畸高的科技股。

  就业报告公布后,美国10年期国债收益率升至1.30%,为上周2月以来的最低水平1.177%。

  这一跃升使美元大幅升值,并将欧元汇率推回到1.1760美元,并短暂跌至4月以来的最低水平1.1740美元。美元兑日圆同样攀升至110.22日圆,脱离上周108.71日圆的低点。美元指数升至92.882,接近7月93.194的峰值。

  由于担心冠肺炎疫情,旅行限制将威胁看涨的需求预期,油价在经历了4个月来最大单周跌幅后进一步下跌。布伦特原油下跌1.29美元,至每桶69.41美元,美国原油下跌1.34美元,至66.94美元。

  王佳晶 摘译自 路透社

  原文如下:

  Asia stocks fight back, gold slides and oil takes a spill

  Asian shares fought back from early losses on Monday as sharp falls in gold and oil prices briefly spooked sentiment, while the dollar reached four-month highs on the euro after an upbeat U.S. jobs report lifted bond yields.

  Markets were shaken early by a sudden dive in gold as a break of $1,750 triggered stop loss sales to take it as low as $1,684 an ounce. It was last down 1.3% at $1,740.

  Brent also sank 2% on concerns the spread of the Delta variant of the coronavirus would temper travel demand.

  Holidays in Tokyo and Singapore made for thin trading conditions, adding to the volatility. Yet after an initial fall, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan recovered to be up 0.1%.

  Nasdaq futures slipped 0.3% and S&P 500 futures 0.2%. EUROSTOXX 50 futures and FTSE futures both dipped 0.2%.

  The U.S. Senate came closer to passing a $1 trillion infrastructure package, though it still has to go through the House.

  Investors were still assessing whether Friday’s strong U.S. payrolls report would take the Federal Reserve a step nearer to winding back its stimulus.

  “There is not a lot of disagreement on a taper announcement coming sometime between September-December followed by actual tapering sometime between November and January,” said Rodrigo Catril, a senior FX strategist at NAB.

  However, the pace of tapering was still up in the air and would decide when an actual rate hike came, he said. The Fed is currently buying $120 billion of assets a month, so a $20 billion taper would end the programme in six months whilst a $10 billion tapering approach would take a year.

  The spread of the Delta variant could argue for a longer taper with U.S. cases back to levels seen in last winter’s surge with more than 66,000 people hospitalised.

  Figures for July CPI due this week are also expected to confirm inflation has peaked, with prices for second hand vehicles finally easing back after huge gains.

  There are four Fed officials speaking this week and will no doubt offer enough grist for markets looking for clues on the timing of tapering.

  In the meantime, stocks have been mostly underpinned by a robust U.S. earnings season. BofA analysts noted S&P 500 companies were tracking a 15% beat on second quarter earnings with 90% having reported.

  “However, companies with earnings beats have seen muted reactions on their stock price the day following earnings releases, and misses have been penalized,” they wrote in a note.

  “Guidance is stronger than average but consensus estimates for two-year growth suggest a slowdown amid macro concerns.”

  Financials firmed on Friday as a steeper yield curve is seen benefiting bank earnings, while also penalising the tech sector where valuations are sky high.

  Yields on U.S. 10-year notes were up at 1.30% in the wake of the jobs report, having hit their lowest since February last week at 1.177%.

  That jump gave the dollar a broad lift and knocked the euro back to $1.1760, and briefly to its lowest since April at $1.1740. The dollar likewise climbed to 110.22 yen and away from last week’s trough of 108.71.

  That took the U.S. currency index up to 92.882 and nearer to the July peak of 93.194.

  Oil prices eased further after suffering their largest weekly drop in four months amid worries coronavirus travel restrictions would threaten bullish expectations for demand.

  Brent fell $1.29 to $69.41 a barrel, while U.S. crude lost $1.34 to $66.94.



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