据油价网7月13日消息称，每年，在BP统计评论发布后，雷斯塔能源都会发布自己的评估，以对去年世界能源格局的变化进行独立、可靠和清晰的比较。我们的2021年回顾对世界剩余可采石油资源的规模造成了重大打击，但它也表明，石油生产和消费可以与气候目标保持一致。
雷斯塔能源现在估计可采石油总资源量为 17250 亿桶，低于去年的估计值 19030 亿桶。根据我们对未来技术上可开采石油量的估计，在这一总量中，以布伦特原油每桶50美元的实际价格计算，大约有1.3万亿桶的利润足以在2100年之前生产。
雷斯塔能源分析主管 Per Magnus Nysveen 说：“在这种情况下，到 2050 年，全球石油和天然气液体的产量将降至每天 5000 万桶以下。从现在到2100年，勘探、开发、加工和消费这些商业开采的石油将导致温室气体排放总量不到450吉吨二氧化碳。这符合政府间气候变化专门委员会关于2100年全球变暖的碳预算限制在1.8摄氏度。”
欧佩克国家剩余可采资源减少530亿桶，至7410亿桶。沙特阿拉伯的原油产量修正幅度最大，损失110亿桶，沙特的可采原油产量目前为2880亿桶。伊拉克排在第三位，其可采资源减少80亿桶至1100亿桶。
曹海斌 摘译自 油价网
原文如下：
World’s Recoverable Oil Resources Shrinks By 9%
Every year and following the publication of the BP Statistical Review, Rystad Energy releases its own assessment to provide an independent, solid and clear comparison of how the world’s energy landscape changed last year. Our 2021 review deals a major blow for the size of the world’s remaining recoverable oil resources – but it also shows that oil production and consumption can align with climate goals.
Rystad Energy now estimates total recoverable oil resources at 1,725 billion barrels, a significant reduction of last year’s estimate of 1,903 billion barrels. Out of this total, which shows our estimate of how much oil is technically recoverable in the future, about 1,300 billion barrels are sufficiently profitable to be produced before the year 2100 at a Brent real oil price of $50 per barrel.
“In this scenario, global production of oil and natural gas liquids will fall below 50 million barrels per day by 2050. Exploring, developing, processing and consuming this amount of commercially extractable oil will lead to gross greenhouse gas emissions of less than 450 gigatonnes of CO2 from now until 2100. This is compliant with IPCC’s carbon budget for global warming limited to 1.8?C by 2100,” says Rystad Energy’s Head of Analysis, Per Magnus Nysveen.
The remaining recoverable resources of OPEC countries are reduced by 53 billion barrels to 741 billion barrels. Saudi Arabia has the largest revisions, losing 11 billion barrels, with Saudi recoverable oil volumes now calculated at 288 billion barrels. Iraq follows in third place, seeing its recoverable resources shrink by 8 billion barrels to 110 billion barrels.
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