据3月17日MENAFN消息：国际能源署(IEA)表示，除非各国政府迅速采取行动，实现气候目标，否则全球石油需求将在两年内恢复到大流行前的水平，并在2026年达到创纪录高位。
IEA在一份年度报告中称，石油市场和世界经济正在从冠状病毒大流行造成的大规模需求崩溃中复苏。
该报告称，随着人们接种疫苗和限制解除，到2023年，需求将恢复到2019年的水平。
IEA的五年预测估计，到2026年，全球需求将每年增长，达到1.04亿桶/天，较2019年增长4%。
然而，随着疫情迫使人们改变行为方式，家工作和旅行减少，需求前景已有所下降。
更多的政府也在关注潜在的“可持续复苏”，以快速迈向低碳未来。报告称，“如果各国政府坚持强有力的政策，加快向清洁能源的转变”，石油需求将比预期更快达到峰值。
IEA执行董事Fatih Birol表示:“实现有序的石油过渡对于实现气候目标至关重要，但这需要各国政府做出重大政策改变，并加速行为转变。否则，从现在到2026年，全球石油需求每年都将增加。”
“为了让全球石油需求在短期内达到峰值，需要立即采取重大行动，提高燃油效率标准，促进电动汽车销售，并抑制电力行业的石油使用。”
根据该机构的基本设想，亚洲预计将引领全球需求的新增长，并占2019年至2026年增长的90%。
IEA表示:“相比之下，许多发达经济体的汽车保有量和人均石油使用量都要高得多，它们的需求预计不会恢复到危机前的水平。”
如果燃油效率标准得到提高，电动汽车销量大增，电力行业使用更少的能源，人们更多地在家里工作，商务旅行没有起色，情况可能会发生巨大变化。
总的来说，到2026年，石油消费量最多可减少560万桶/天，这将意味着全球石油需求永远不会回到大流行前的水平。
Birol表示:“没有一家油气公司不受清洁能源转型的影响，因此，随着全球推动净零排放的势头不断增强，各行业都需要考虑如何应对。”
冯娟 摘译自 MENAFN
原文如下：
Oil demand to reach record by 2026: IEA
Global oil demand will return to pre-pandemic levels in two years and reach record heights by 2026 unless governments take swift action to meet climate goals, the International Energy Agency said Wednesday.
Oil markets and the world economy are recovering from the massive collapse in demand caused by the coronavirus pandemic, the IEA said in an annual report.
"The Covid-19 crisis caused a historic decline in global oil demand -â€' but not necessarily a lasting one," IEA executive director Fatih Birol said in a statement.
As people get vaccinated and restrictions are lifted, demand will return to its 2019 level by 2023, according to the report.
The IEA's five-year projections estimates global demand will rise each year to reach 104 million barrels a day (mb/d) by 2026, a gain of four percent from the level in 2019.
The outlook for demand, however, has shifted lower as the pandemic has forced changes in behaviour, with people working from home and travelling less, the report said.
More governments are also focusing on a potential "sustainable recovery" to move quickly towards a low-carbon future.
This raises the prospect of reaching a peak in oil demand sooner than expected "if governments follow through with strong policies to hasten the shift to clean energy," according to the report.
"Achieving an orderly transition away from oil is essential to meet climate goals, but it will require major policy changes from governments as well as accelerated behavioural changes," Birol said.
"Without that, global oil demand is set to increase every year between now and 2026," he said.
"For the world's oil demand to peak anytime soon, significant action is needed immediately to improve fuel efficiency standards, boost electric vehicle sales and curb oil use in the power sector."
Asia is expected to lead renewed growth in global demand and account for 90 percent of the increase from 2019 to 2026, according to the agency's base scenario.
"By contrast, demand in many advanced economies, where vehicle ownership and oil use per capita are much higher, is not expected to return to pre-crisis levels," the IEA said.
If fuel efficiency standards are improved, electric vehicle sales take off, the power sector uses less energy, people recycle and work from home more and business travel fails to pick up, the picture could change dramatically.
Taken together, it could reduce oil consumption by up to 5.6 mb/d by 2026, "which would mean that global oil demand never gets back to where it was before the pandemic."
Birol said: "No oil and gas company will be unaffected by clean energy transitions, so every part of the industry needs to consider how to respond as momentum builds behind the world's drive for net-zero emissions."
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